UEFA Europa League

Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

79% confidence

Union St. Gilloise 78.6% Draw 10.6% Real Sociedad 10.8%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Real Sociedad: 9 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.3%

Exact-score model probability

Union St. Gilloise

D D L W D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 15:8 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Real Sociedad

W W L W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:10 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Union St. Gilloise win78.6%

Draw10.6%

Real Sociedad win10.8%

Over 1.5 goals98.9%

Over 2.5 goals95.2%

Over 3.5 goals87.8%

Both teams to score84.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

91.7%

Goal in Both Halves

91.7%

Over 2.5 Goals

91.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.591.7%

Goal in Both Halves91.7%

Draw No Bet - Home87.8%

Home or Away (12)86.2%

Home or Draw (1X)85.4%

Home Win75.6%

Draw or Away (X2)20.3%

Draw No Bet - Away12.2%

Away Win10.5%

Draw9.8%

Exactly 1 Goal1.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.7%

Over 2.5 Goals91.4%

Over 3.5 Goals84.2%

4+ Goals84.2%

Over 4.5 Goals72.7%

Over 5.5 Goals57.9%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals42.1%

Under 4.5 Goals27.3%

2-4 Goals22.1%

3-4 Goals18.7%

Under 3.5 Goals15.8%

1-3 Goals11.6%

2-3 Goals10.5%

Under 2.5 Goals8.6%

Exactly 3 Goals7.2%

Under 1.5 Goals5.3%

1-2 Goals4.4%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals3.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score81.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.1%

Home Clean Sheet14.1%

Home Win to Nil13.9%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.581.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.554.9%

Away Over 2.528.9%

Away 3+ Goals28.9%

Away Exactly 127.0%

Away Exactly 225.9%

Away Exactly 014.1%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)78.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away78.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)65.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away65.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)49.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away49.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)46.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home46.1%

Home to win by 3+46.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)34.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away34.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)30.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home30.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away20.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)17.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home17.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.7%

Home to win by 113.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.8%

Away to win by 15.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.9%

Away to win by 22.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.8%

Away to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.5%

Home & Over 2.573.3%

Home & BTTS61.7%

Home & No BTTS13.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.9%

Away & Over 2.59.9%

Away & BTTS9.6%

Draw & BTTS9.6%

Draw & Over 2.58.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.2%

Home & Under 2.52.4%

Draw & Under 2.51.6%

BTTS & Under 2.51.4%

Away & No BTTS0.9%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.4%

HT Over 1.578.3%

HT Home Win64.4%

HT/FT Home/Home59.6%

2nd Half More Goals51.9%

HT Both Teams Score50.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.521.7%

HT Draw20.5%

Equal Goals Each Half15.6%

HT Away Win15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT/FT Away/Away6.1%

HT/FT Away/Home5.9%

HT Under 0.55.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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