Netherlands · Eredivisie

Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar

Kick-off 17:45 · Sat, Aug 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Utrecht 45.2% Draw 27.6% AZ Alkmaar 27.2%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Utrecht: 13 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

Utrecht

L D W W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

AZ Alkmaar

W D D D D W

Form 2-4-0 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Utrecht 2wins ·2 draws ·AZ Alkmaar 1wins

Utrecht 2-0 AZ AlkmaarMar 1, 2026

Utrecht 1-4 AZ AlkmaarOct 26, 2025

Utrecht 0-0 AZ AlkmaarJan 18, 2025

Utrecht 2-1 AZ AlkmaarSep 29, 2024

Utrecht 3-3 AZ AlkmaarMay 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Utrecht win45.2%

Draw27.6%

AZ Alkmaar win27.2%

Over 1.5 goals78.1%

Over 2.5 goals86.6%

Over 3.5 goals30.6%

Both teams to score70.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

85.2%

Home or Draw (1X)

84.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

84.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)84.6%

Home or Away (12)84.2%

Draw No Bet - Home82.0%

Both Halves Over 0.576.9%

Goal in Both Halves76.9%

Home Win69.1%

Draw or Away (X2)30.6%

Draw No Bet - Away18.0%

Draw15.5%

Away Win15.1%

Exactly 1 Goal6.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals92.2%

Over 2.5 Goals79.2%

Under 5.5 Goals74.9%

Over 3.5 Goals60.9%

4+ Goals60.9%

Under 4.5 Goals58.5%

2-4 Goals50.6%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Over 4.5 Goals41.5%

Under 3.5 Goals39.1%

3-4 Goals37.7%

1-3 Goals37.3%

2-3 Goals31.2%

Over 5.5 Goals25.1%

Under 2.5 Goals20.8%

1-2 Goals19.0%

Exactly 3 Goals18.3%

Exactly 2 Goals12.9%

Under 1.5 Goals7.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.2%

Away Team to Score73.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.4%

Home Clean Sheet26.0%

Home Win to Nil24.6%

Away Clean Sheet5.5%

Away Win to Nil4.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.2%

Home Over 1.578.2%

Away Over 0.573.7%

Home Over 2.555.1%

Home 3+ Goals55.1%

Away Over 1.538.7%

Away Exactly 134.9%

Away Exactly 026.0%

Away Exactly 223.5%

Home Exactly 223.1%

Home Exactly 116.0%

Away Over 2.515.3%

Away 3+ Goals15.3%

Home Exactly 05.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)83.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away83.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)69.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)69.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away69.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away50.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)49.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home49.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)30.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)30.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away30.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home30.6%

Home to win by 3+30.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.6%

Home to win by 119.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.9%

Home to win by 218.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)16.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home16.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.1%

Away to win by 19.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.1%

Away to win by 24.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.0%

Away to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.564.0%

Home & Over 2.558.9%

Home & BTTS44.5%

Home & No BTTS24.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.9%

Draw & BTTS14.1%

Away & Over 2.511.9%

Away & BTTS11.0%

Home & Under 2.510.2%

Draw & Over 2.58.5%

Draw & Under 2.57.0%

BTTS & Under 2.55.6%

Away & No BTTS4.1%

Away & Under 2.53.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.2%

HT Over 1.556.9%

HT Home Win53.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT/FT Home/Home48.0%

HT Under 1.543.1%

HT Both Teams Score33.1%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw29.0%

Equal Goals Each Half19.7%

HT Away Win17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.8%

HT Under 0.514.8%

HT/FT Away/Away8.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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