Netherlands · Eredivisie

Utrecht vs Willem II

Kick-off 11:15 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

Utrecht 71.8% Draw 18.8% Willem II 9.3%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 95%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

91%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Utrecht: 4 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Utrecht 3 wins, 0 draws, Willem II 1 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Utrecht

L W L L D L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 8:22 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 3.67

Willem II

L L D L D L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 5:16 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.67

Head to head · last 4

Utrecht 3wins ·0 draws ·Willem II 1wins

Utrecht 3-2 Willem IIMar 9, 2025

Utrecht 3-2 Willem IISep 21, 2024

Utrecht 0-3 Willem IIMay 15, 2022

Utrecht 5-1 Willem IIOct 31, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Utrecht win71.8%

Draw18.8%

Willem II win9.3%

Over 1.5 goals83.1%

Over 2.5 goals97.8%

Over 3.5 goals38.4%

Both teams to score94.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

92.0%

Goal in Both Halves

92.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.592.0%

Goal in Both Halves92.0%

Home or Away (12)83.4%

Home or Draw (1X)70.3%

Draw No Bet - Home66.4%

Home Win55.4%

Draw or Away (X2)43.0%

Draw No Bet - Away33.6%

Away Win28.0%

Draw15.0%

Exactly 1 Goal1.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals97.2%

Over 2.5 Goals94.1%

Over 3.5 Goals87.2%

4+ Goals87.2%

Over 4.5 Goals76.1%

Over 5.5 Goals61.6%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Total Goals Even49.2%

Under 5.5 Goals38.4%

Under 4.5 Goals23.9%

2-4 Goals21.1%

3-4 Goals18.0%

Under 3.5 Goals12.8%

1-3 Goals11.0%

2-3 Goals10.0%

Exactly 3 Goals6.8%

Under 2.5 Goals5.9%

1-2 Goals4.1%

Exactly 2 Goals3.1%

Under 1.5 Goals2.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score92.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)90.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)10.0%

Home Clean Sheet6.1%

Home Win to Nil6.0%

Away Clean Sheet2.4%

Away Win to Nil2.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Away Over 0.592.2%

Home Over 1.587.0%

Away Over 1.575.2%

Home Over 2.570.4%

Home 3+ Goals70.4%

Away Over 2.551.6%

Away 3+ Goals51.6%

Away Exactly 223.6%

Away Exactly 117.0%

Home Exactly 216.6%

Home Exactly 18.9%

Away Exactly 06.1%

Home Exactly 02.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away84.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)82.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home82.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)58.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away58.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)55.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)43.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away43.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)39.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home39.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)25.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home25.1%

Home to win by 3+25.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)16.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away16.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 115.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.3%

Home to win by 214.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 111.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.2%

Away to win by 3+8.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.0%

Away to win by 28.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.588.4%

Home & Over 2.553.8%

Home & BTTS49.4%

Away & Over 2.527.0%

Away & BTTS25.7%

Draw & BTTS14.8%

Draw & Over 2.513.3%

Home & No BTTS6.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.7%

Away & No BTTS2.2%

Draw & Under 2.51.7%

Home & Under 2.51.6%

BTTS & Under 2.51.5%

Away & Under 2.51.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.7%

HT Over 1.579.0%

HT Both Teams Score58.1%

2nd Half More Goals52.1%

HT Home Win47.4%

HT/FT Home/Home38.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Away Win28.5%

HT Draw24.0%

HT Under 1.521.0%

HT/FT Away/Away17.5%

Equal Goals Each Half15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.9%

HT/FT Away/Home6.1%

HT Under 0.55.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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