Spain · La Liga

Valencia vs Athletic Club

Kick-off 20:00 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Valencia 37.8% Draw 29.7% Athletic Club 32.5%

Over 2.5 - 39% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

77%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Athletic Club: 4 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Valencia 3 wins, 0 draws, Athletic Club 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10%

Exact-score model probability

Valencia

D L W L L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:14 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.33

Athletic Club

D D W W L L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Valencia 3wins ·0 draws ·Athletic Club 2wins

Valencia 1-0 Athletic ClubMay 10, 2026

Valencia 2-0 Athletic ClubSep 20, 2025

Valencia 0-1 Athletic ClubMay 18, 2025

Valencia 0-1 Athletic ClubAug 28, 2024

Valencia 1-0 Athletic ClubJan 20, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Valencia win37.8%

Draw29.7%

Athletic Club win32.5%

Over 1.5 goals65.8%

Over 2.5 goals38.6%

Over 3.5 goals18.7%

Both teams to score77.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

89.5%

Under 5.5 Goals

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.2%

Home or Draw (1X)67.4%

Both Halves Over 0.564.7%

Goal in Both Halves64.7%

Draw No Bet - Home57.7%

Draw or Away (X2)55.4%

Home Win44.6%

Draw No Bet - Away42.3%

Away Win32.6%

Draw22.8%

Exactly 1 Goal12.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.3%

Under 5.5 Goals88.3%

Over 1.5 Goals84.1%

Under 4.5 Goals76.3%

Over 2.5 Goals64.0%

2-4 Goals60.4%

Under 3.5 Goals58.1%

1-3 Goals54.4%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.2%

Over 3.5 Goals41.9%

4+ Goals41.9%

3-4 Goals40.3%

Under 2.5 Goals36.0%

1-2 Goals32.3%

Over 4.5 Goals23.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.1%

Under 1.5 Goals15.9%

Over 5.5 Goals11.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.7%

Exactly 0 Goals3.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score83.3%

Away Team to Score77.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.2%

Home Clean Sheet22.2%

Home Win to Nil18.5%

Away Clean Sheet16.7%

Away Win to Nil13.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.583.3%

Away Over 0.577.8%

Home Over 1.553.4%

Away Over 1.544.4%

Away Exactly 133.4%

Home Exactly 129.9%

Home Exactly 226.8%

Home Over 2.526.7%

Home 3+ Goals26.7%

Away Exactly 225.2%

Away Exactly 022.2%

Away Over 2.519.3%

Away 3+ Goals19.3%

Home Exactly 016.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)67.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home67.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)55.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away55.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)44.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)32.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.6%

Home to win by 120.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.3%

Away to win by 117.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.4%

Home to win by 213.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.5%

Home to win by 3+10.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.5%

Away to win by 29.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.8%

Away to win by 3+5.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.554.9%

Home & Over 2.532.0%

Home & BTTS26.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.0%

Away & Over 2.522.9%

Away & BTTS19.6%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Home & No BTTS18.5%

Draw & Under 2.513.7%

Away & No BTTS13.0%

Home & Under 2.512.5%

BTTS & Under 2.510.0%

Away & Under 2.59.8%

Draw & Over 2.59.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.3%

HT Under 1.556.3%

2nd Half More Goals45.6%

HT Over 1.543.7%

HT Draw36.9%

HT Home Win35.3%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Away Win27.8%

HT/FT Home/Home27.4%

HT Both Teams Score27.2%

HT Under 0.522.7%

Equal Goals Each Half22.7%

HT/FT Away/Away19.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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