Spain · La Liga

Valencia vs Barcelona

Kick-off 15:15 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

63% confidence

Valencia 16.4% Draw 20.3% Barcelona 63.3%

Over 2.5 - 58% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

80%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.6%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Barcelona: 8 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.6%

Exact-score model probability

Valencia

L L D W W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Barcelona

W W W L W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 16:7 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Valencia 1wins ·0 draws ·Barcelona 4wins

Valencia 3-1 BarcelonaMay 23, 2026

Valencia 0-6 BarcelonaSep 14, 2025

Valencia 1-7 BarcelonaJan 26, 2025

Valencia 1-2 BarcelonaAug 17, 2024

Valencia 2-4 BarcelonaApr 29, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Valencia win16.4%

Draw20.3%

Barcelona win63.3%

Over 1.5 goals80.1%

Over 2.5 goals57.8%

Over 3.5 goals35.4%

Both teams to score63.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

90.7%

Draw or Away (X2)

85.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

85.4%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)85.4%

Home or Away (12)84.0%

Draw No Bet - Away82.9%

Both Halves Over 0.574.3%

Goal in Both Halves74.3%

Away Win69.7%

Home or Draw (1X)30.1%

Draw No Bet - Home17.1%

Draw15.8%

Home Win14.3%

Exactly 1 Goal7.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals90.7%

Under 5.5 Goals78.6%

Over 2.5 Goals76.1%

Under 4.5 Goals63.0%

Over 3.5 Goals56.6%

4+ Goals56.6%

2-4 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals43.4%

1-3 Goals41.4%

3-4 Goals39.0%

Over 4.5 Goals37.0%

2-3 Goals34.1%

Under 2.5 Goals23.9%

1-2 Goals21.9%

Over 5.5 Goals21.4%

Exactly 3 Goals19.5%

Exactly 2 Goals14.6%

Under 1.5 Goals9.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score93.6%

Home Team to Score70.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.9%

Away Clean Sheet29.3%

Away Win to Nil27.5%

Home Clean Sheet6.2%

Home Win to Nil4.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.593.6%

Away Over 1.576.4%

Home Over 0.570.5%

Away Over 2.552.4%

Away 3+ Goals52.4%

Home Exactly 135.9%

Home Over 1.534.6%

Home Exactly 029.3%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Home Exactly 222.0%

Away Exactly 117.2%

Home Over 2.512.6%

Home 3+ Goals12.6%

Away Exactly 06.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home92.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away85.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)84.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home84.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)69.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home69.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home50.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)49.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away49.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)30.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)30.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home30.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away30.1%

Away to win by 3+30.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.2%

Away to win by 120.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.3%

Away to win by 219.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away15.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.9%

Home to win by 18.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away7.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.8%

Home to win by 23.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.6%

Home to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.9%

Away & Over 2.557.6%

Away & BTTS42.2%

Away & No BTTS27.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.2%

Draw & BTTS14.0%

Away & Under 2.512.1%

Home & Over 2.510.7%

Home & BTTS9.9%

Draw & Under 2.58.0%

Draw & Over 2.57.8%

BTTS & Under 2.56.2%

Home & No BTTS4.4%

Home & Under 2.53.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.5%

HT Over 1.553.8%

HT Away Win53.7%

HT/FT Away/Away48.2%

2nd Half More Goals47.5%

HT Under 1.546.2%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score30.3%

HT Draw30.0%

Equal Goals Each Half20.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.4%

HT Under 0.516.5%

HT Home Win16.4%

HT/FT Home/Home8.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away4.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions