Spain · La Liga

Valencia vs Celta Vigo

Kick-off 18:30 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Valencia 42.6% Draw 25.7% Celta Vigo 31.7%

Over 2.5 - 49% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7.3%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Valencia: 13 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.3%

Exact-score model probability

Valencia

W W D W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Celta Vigo

W D L W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Valencia 1wins ·1 draws ·Celta Vigo 3wins

Valencia 2-3 Celta VigoApr 5, 2026

Valencia 1-4 Celta VigoJan 3, 2026

Valencia 2-1 Celta VigoFeb 2, 2025

Valencia 1-3 Celta VigoAug 23, 2024

Valencia 2-2 Celta VigoMay 26, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Valencia win42.6%

Draw25.7%

Celta Vigo win31.7%

Over 1.5 goals73.5%

Over 2.5 goals48.7%

Over 3.5 goals26.9%

Both teams to score79.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.7%

Both Halves Over 0.576.0%

Goal in Both Halves76.0%

Home or Draw (1X)62.5%

Draw or Away (X2)57.7%

Draw No Bet - Home53.0%

Draw No Bet - Away47.0%

Home Win42.2%

Away Win37.4%

Draw20.2%

Exactly 1 Goal6.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals91.9%

Over 2.5 Goals78.3%

Under 5.5 Goals76.1%

Under 4.5 Goals59.9%

Over 3.5 Goals59.6%

4+ Goals59.6%

2-4 Goals51.8%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals40.4%

Over 4.5 Goals40.1%

1-3 Goals38.8%

3-4 Goals38.2%

2-3 Goals32.3%

Over 5.5 Goals23.9%

Under 2.5 Goals21.7%

1-2 Goals20.1%

Exactly 3 Goals18.8%

Exactly 2 Goals13.5%

Under 1.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.2%

Away Team to Score86.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.6%

Home Clean Sheet13.3%

Away Clean Sheet11.8%

Home Win to Nil11.8%

Away Win to Nil10.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.2%

Away Over 0.586.6%

Home Over 1.563.0%

Away Over 1.559.7%

Home Over 2.536.1%

Home 3+ Goals36.1%

Away Over 2.532.7%

Away 3+ Goals32.7%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 126.9%

Home Exactly 125.2%

Away Exactly 013.3%

Home Exactly 011.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away75.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)62.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home62.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)57.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away57.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)37.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)24.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home24.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 118.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.1%

Away to win by 117.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.5%

Home to win by 212.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.6%

Home to win by 3+11.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.1%

Away to win by 211.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.3%

Away to win by 3+9.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.7%

Home & Over 2.535.3%

Away & Over 2.531.1%

Home & BTTS30.5%

Away & BTTS27.3%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.9%

Draw & Over 2.511.9%

Home & No BTTS11.8%

Away & No BTTS10.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Under 2.58.3%

Home & Under 2.57.0%

BTTS & Under 2.56.8%

Away & Under 2.56.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.6%

HT Over 1.555.8%

2nd Half More Goals47.9%

HT Under 1.544.2%

HT Both Teams Score36.9%

HT Home Win35.5%

HT Away Win32.4%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw32.1%

HT/FT Home/Home26.5%

HT/FT Away/Away23.1%

Equal Goals Each Half19.9%

HT Under 0.515.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away3.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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