Spain · La Liga

Valencia vs Real Madrid

Kick-off 21:00 · Sat, Nov 7

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Valencia 16.8% Draw 23.7% Real Madrid 59.5%

Over 2.5 - 49% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 7.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Real Madrid: 8 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.4%

Exact-score model probability

Valencia

W L D D L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Real Madrid

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 20:8 Scored/game 3.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Valencia 1wins ·1 draws ·Real Madrid 3wins

Valencia 0-2 Real MadridFeb 8, 2026

Valencia 0-4 Real MadridNov 1, 2025

Valencia 2-1 Real MadridApr 5, 2025

Valencia 1-2 Real MadridJan 3, 2025

Valencia 2-2 Real MadridMar 2, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Valencia win16.8%

Draw23.7%

Real Madrid win59.5%

Over 1.5 goals74.0%

Over 2.5 goals48.6%

Over 3.5 goals26.7%

Both teams to score68.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

89.4%

HT Over 0.5

89.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

89.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away93.1%

Draw or Away (X2)92.1%

Home or Away (12)89.4%

Both Halves Over 0.583.5%

Goal in Both Halves83.5%

Away Win83.2%

Home or Draw (1X)15.0%

Draw8.9%

Draw No Bet - Home6.9%

Home Win6.1%

Exactly 1 Goal3.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals94.1%

Over 2.5 Goals85.5%

Over 3.5 Goals71.3%

4+ Goals71.3%

Under 5.5 Goals63.9%

Over 4.5 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Even49.2%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

Under 4.5 Goals46.4%

2-4 Goals40.5%

Over 5.5 Goals36.1%

3-4 Goals31.9%

Under 3.5 Goals28.7%

1-3 Goals26.3%

2-3 Goals22.8%

Under 2.5 Goals14.5%

Exactly 3 Goals14.2%

1-2 Goals12.0%

Exactly 2 Goals8.6%

Under 1.5 Goals5.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score65.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.6%

Away Clean Sheet32.4%

Away Win to Nil31.7%

Home Clean Sheet2.1%

Home Win to Nil1.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Away Over 1.588.0%

Away Over 2.572.3%

Away 3+ Goals72.3%

Home Over 0.565.8%

Home Exactly 135.9%

Home Exactly 032.4%

Home Over 1.529.9%

Home Exactly 219.9%

Away Exactly 215.7%

Home Over 2.510.0%

Home 3+ Goals10.0%

Away Exactly 18.1%

Away Exactly 02.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away92.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)89.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)83.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)79.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home79.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)68.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away68.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)64.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home64.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)51.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away51.0%

Away to win by 3+51.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)47.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home47.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)33.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away33.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)29.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home29.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away19.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.9%

Away to win by 217.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw17.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home15.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.4%

Away to win by 114.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw14.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw9.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away9.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.1%

Home to win by 14.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.5%

Home to win by 21.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.5%

Home to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.575.4%

BTTS & Over 2.561.4%

Away & BTTS51.5%

Away & No BTTS31.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.8%

Draw & BTTS8.2%

Away & Under 2.57.9%

Draw & Over 2.55.2%

Home & Over 2.54.9%

Home & BTTS4.7%

Draw & Under 2.53.7%

BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Home & No BTTS1.4%

Home & Under 2.51.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.3%

HT Away Win67.7%

HT Over 1.565.4%

HT/FT Away/Away64.6%

2nd Half More Goals49.6%

HT Under 1.534.6%

HT Both Teams Score32.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw22.2%

Equal Goals Each Half18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.1%

HT Under 0.510.7%

HT Home Win10.1%

HT/FT Home/Away4.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Home3.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.1%

HT/FT Away/Home0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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