Spain · La Liga

Valencia vs Real Sociedad

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Valencia 42.2% Draw 26.9% Real Sociedad 30.9%

Over 2.5 - 47% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

74%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Real Sociedad: 4 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.6%

Exact-score model probability

Valencia

W L L L L D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 2:10 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Real Sociedad

L W D W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:11 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Valencia 2wins ·1 draws ·Real Sociedad 2wins

Valencia 4-3 Real SociedadMay 17, 2026

Valencia 1-1 Real SociedadAug 16, 2025

Valencia 1-0 Real SociedadJan 19, 2025

Valencia 0-3 Real SociedadSep 28, 2024

Valencia 0-1 Real SociedadMay 16, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Valencia win42.2%

Draw26.9%

Real Sociedad win30.9%

Over 1.5 goals72.9%

Over 2.5 goals47.4%

Over 3.5 goals25.7%

Both teams to score74.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.3%

Under 5.5 Goals

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.4%

Both Halves Over 0.566.3%

Goal in Both Halves66.3%

Draw or Away (X2)64.6%

Home or Draw (1X)58.0%

Draw No Bet - Away54.3%

Draw No Bet - Home45.7%

Away Win42.0%

Home Win35.4%

Draw22.6%

Exactly 1 Goal11.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.7%

Under 5.5 Goals87.0%

Over 1.5 Goals85.3%

Under 4.5 Goals74.4%

Over 2.5 Goals66.0%

2-4 Goals59.7%

Under 3.5 Goals55.8%

1-3 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals44.2%

4+ Goals44.2%

2-3 Goals41.1%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.0%

1-2 Goals30.6%

Over 4.5 Goals25.6%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Exactly 2 Goals19.3%

Under 1.5 Goals14.7%

Over 5.5 Goals13.0%

Under 0.5 Goals3.3%

Exactly 0 Goals3.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score83.1%

Home Team to Score80.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.3%

Away Clean Sheet19.8%

Home Clean Sheet16.8%

Away Win to Nil16.4%

Home Win to Nil13.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.583.1%

Home Over 0.580.2%

Away Over 1.553.1%

Home Over 1.548.2%

Home Exactly 132.0%

Away Exactly 130.0%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Away Over 2.526.4%

Away 3+ Goals26.4%

Home Exactly 226.0%

Home Over 2.522.2%

Home 3+ Goals22.2%

Home Exactly 019.8%

Away Exactly 016.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away82.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home77.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)64.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away64.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)58.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home58.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)42.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)35.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)22.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away22.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.8%

Away to win by 119.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)17.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home17.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.6%

Away to win by 212.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.4%

Home to win by 210.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.7%

Away to win by 3+9.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.0%

Home to win by 3+7.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.557.1%

Away & Over 2.530.8%

Home & Over 2.525.6%

Away & BTTS25.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.3%

Home & BTTS21.9%

Draw & BTTS19.2%

Away & No BTTS16.4%

Home & No BTTS13.5%

Draw & Under 2.512.9%

Away & Under 2.511.2%

Home & Under 2.59.8%

Draw & Over 2.59.6%

BTTS & Under 2.59.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.4%

HT Under 1.554.8%

2nd Half More Goals45.9%

HT Over 1.545.2%

HT Draw36.3%

HT Away Win34.0%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Home Win29.8%

HT Both Teams Score28.5%

HT/FT Away/Away25.7%

Equal Goals Each Half22.3%

HT Under 0.521.6%

HT/FT Home/Home21.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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