Spain · La Liga

Valencia vs Villarreal

Full time · 1:2

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Valencia 30.6% Draw 26.4% Villarreal 42.9%

Over 2.5 - 52% BTTS - 79%

✓ Pick was correct (1:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

79%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

76%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.8%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Villarreal: 5 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.8%

Exact-score model probability

Valencia

D D L W L L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Villarreal

L D W L W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:8 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Valencia 0wins ·2 draws ·Villarreal 3wins

Valencia 1-2 VillarrealFeb 22, 2026

Valencia 0-2 VillarrealOct 25, 2025

Valencia 1-1 VillarrealFeb 15, 2025

Valencia 1-1 VillarrealAug 31, 2024

Valencia 0-1 VillarrealMar 17, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Valencia win30.6%

Draw26.4%

Villarreal win42.9%

Over 1.5 goals76.3%

Over 2.5 goals51.5%

Over 3.5 goals29.3%

Both teams to score79.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

89.0%

Away Over 0.5

89.0%

Over 1.5 Goals

88.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.6%

Draw or Away (X2)73.0%

Both Halves Over 0.571.4%

Goal in Both Halves71.4%

Draw No Bet - Away66.1%

Away Win52.7%

Home or Draw (1X)47.3%

Draw No Bet - Home33.9%

Home Win26.9%

Draw20.4%

Exactly 1 Goal8.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals88.9%

Under 5.5 Goals82.1%

Over 2.5 Goals72.6%

Under 4.5 Goals67.4%

2-4 Goals56.4%

Over 3.5 Goals52.0%

4+ Goals52.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals48.0%

1-3 Goals45.7%

3-4 Goals40.0%

2-3 Goals37.0%

Over 4.5 Goals32.6%

Under 2.5 Goals27.4%

1-2 Goals25.1%

Exactly 3 Goals20.6%

Over 5.5 Goals17.9%

Exactly 2 Goals16.4%

Under 1.5 Goals11.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score89.0%

Home Team to Score78.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.8%

Away Clean Sheet21.1%

Away Win to Nil18.8%

Home Clean Sheet10.9%

Home Win to Nil8.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.589.0%

Home Over 0.578.8%

Away Over 1.564.8%

Home Over 1.546.0%

Away Over 2.538.1%

Away 3+ Goals38.1%

Home Exactly 132.8%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 225.5%

Away Exactly 124.2%

Home Exactly 021.1%

Home Over 2.520.5%

Home 3+ Goals20.5%

Away Exactly 010.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away87.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)83.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home83.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)73.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away73.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)68.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home68.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)32.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away32.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)26.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.7%

Away to win by 120.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)16.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away16.3%

Away to win by 3+16.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.7%

Away to win by 215.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 114.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home12.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.7%

Home to win by 27.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away7.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.7%

Home to win by 3+4.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.562.3%

Away & Over 2.541.9%

Away & BTTS33.9%

Home & Over 2.520.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.4%

Away & No BTTS18.8%

Home & BTTS18.3%

Draw & BTTS18.0%

Away & Under 2.510.8%

Draw & Under 2.510.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.3%

Draw & Over 2.510.1%

Home & No BTTS8.6%

BTTS & Under 2.57.9%

Home & Under 2.56.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.7%

HT Over 1.550.6%

HT Under 1.549.4%

2nd Half More Goals46.9%

HT Away Win41.5%

HT/FT Away/Away33.8%

HT Draw33.5%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score31.7%

HT Home Win25.0%

Equal Goals Each Half21.0%

HT Under 0.518.3%

HT/FT Home/Home15.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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