Brazil · Serie A

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians

Full time · 3:2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Vasco DA Gama 82.8% Draw 10.3% Corinthians 6.9%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 70%

✓ Pick was correct (3:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Vasco DA Gama: 8 points versus 1 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.2%

Exact-score model probability

Vasco DA Gama

L D D W W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Corinthians

D L L L L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 6:14 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vasco DA Gama win82.8%

Draw10.3%

Corinthians win6.9%

Over 1.5 goals96.7%

Over 2.5 goals88.4%

Over 3.5 goals74.9%

Both teams to score70.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

91.9%

Home or Draw (1X)

91.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home91.9%

Home or Draw (1X)91.0%

Home or Away (12)88.8%

Both Halves Over 0.584.7%

Goal in Both Halves84.7%

Home Win81.6%

Draw or Away (X2)16.6%

Draw9.4%

Draw No Bet - Away8.1%

Away Win7.2%

Exactly 1 Goal3.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals94.5%

Over 2.5 Goals86.8%

Over 3.5 Goals73.5%

4+ Goals73.5%

Under 5.5 Goals61.1%

Over 4.5 Goals56.5%

Total Goals Even49.1%

Total Goals Odd49.0%

Under 4.5 Goals43.5%

Over 5.5 Goals38.9%

2-4 Goals38.1%

3-4 Goals30.3%

Under 3.5 Goals26.5%

1-3 Goals24.1%

2-3 Goals21.0%

Exactly 3 Goals13.3%

Under 2.5 Goals13.2%

1-2 Goals10.8%

Exactly 2 Goals7.8%

Under 1.5 Goals5.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score69.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.7%

Home Clean Sheet28.4%

Home Win to Nil27.8%

Away Clean Sheet2.0%

Away Win to Nil1.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.588.2%

Home Over 2.572.8%

Home 3+ Goals72.8%

Away Over 0.569.8%

Away Exactly 135.2%

Away Over 1.534.5%

Away Exactly 028.4%

Away Exactly 221.8%

Home Exactly 215.4%

Away Over 2.512.7%

Away 3+ Goals12.7%

Home Exactly 17.9%

Home Exactly 02.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)89.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)81.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)80.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away80.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)67.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home67.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)66.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away66.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)49.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home49.3%

Home to win by 3+49.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)48.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away48.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)32.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home32.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)31.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away31.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)18.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home18.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 217.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.6%

Home to win by 114.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.6%

Away to win by 14.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.8%

Away to win by 21.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.574.8%

BTTS & Over 2.565.5%

Home & BTTS53.8%

Home & No BTTS27.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.3%

Draw & BTTS8.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.5%

Home & Under 2.56.8%

Draw & Over 2.56.0%

Away & Over 2.56.0%

Away & BTTS5.7%

Draw & Under 2.53.4%

BTTS & Under 2.52.8%

Away & No BTTS1.4%

Away & Under 2.51.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.1%

HT Over 1.567.2%

HT Home Win66.5%

HT/FT Home/Home62.9%

2nd Half More Goals49.9%

HT Both Teams Score35.4%

HT Under 1.532.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw22.3%

Equal Goals Each Half17.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.8%

HT Away Win11.2%

HT Under 0.59.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Away4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

Corners (12)

Home Most Corners77.7%

Home Over 4.5 Corners75.7%

Under 11.5 Corners72.0%

Over 8.5 Corners64.3%

Under 10.5 Corners60.9%

Over 9.5 Corners51.6%

Under 9.5 Corners48.4%

Over 10.5 Corners39.1%

Under 8.5 Corners35.7%

Over 11.5 Corners28.0%

Away Over 4.5 Corners26.7%

Away Most Corners13.7%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards81.1%

Over 2.5 Cards73.6%

Under 4.5 Cards66.1%

Over 3.5 Cards53.3%

Under 3.5 Cards46.7%

Over 4.5 Cards33.9%

Under 2.5 Cards26.4%

Over 5.5 Cards18.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards15.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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