Brazil · Serie A

Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

Vasco DA Gama 14.1% Draw 17.4% Coritiba 68.5%

Over 2.5 - 78% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

86%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Coritiba: 7 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.4%

Exact-score model probability

Vasco DA Gama

W L W L L D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

Coritiba

D L W W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 12:10 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vasco DA Gama win14.1%

Draw17.4%

Coritiba win68.5%

Over 1.5 goals92.3%

Over 2.5 goals77.5%

Over 3.5 goals58.4%

Both teams to score68.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.3%

Under 5.5 Cards

90.2%

Draw or Away (X2)

84.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)84.9%

Home or Away (12)84.0%

Draw No Bet - Away82.3%

Both Halves Over 0.575.3%

Goal in Both Halves75.3%

Away Win69.1%

Home or Draw (1X)30.6%

Draw No Bet - Home17.7%

Draw15.8%

Home Win14.8%

Exactly 1 Goal6.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals91.3%

Over 2.5 Goals77.3%

Under 5.5 Goals77.3%

Under 4.5 Goals61.3%

Over 3.5 Goals58.2%

4+ Goals58.2%

2-4 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals41.8%

1-3 Goals39.8%

Over 4.5 Goals38.7%

3-4 Goals38.6%

2-3 Goals33.0%

Under 2.5 Goals22.7%

Over 5.5 Goals22.7%

1-2 Goals20.8%

Exactly 3 Goals19.1%

Exactly 2 Goals14.0%

Under 1.5 Goals8.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score93.8%

Home Team to Score72.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.3%

Away Clean Sheet27.8%

Away Win to Nil26.1%

Home Clean Sheet6.0%

Home Win to Nil4.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.593.8%

Away Over 1.576.9%

Home Over 0.572.0%

Away Over 2.553.2%

Away 3+ Goals53.2%

Home Over 1.536.5%

Home Exactly 135.5%

Home Exactly 027.8%

Away Exactly 223.7%

Home Exactly 222.7%

Away Exactly 116.9%

Home Over 2.513.8%

Home 3+ Goals13.8%

Away Exactly 06.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home92.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)84.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away84.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)84.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home84.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)69.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home69.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)69.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)50.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home50.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)49.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away49.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)30.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home30.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)30.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away30.0%

Away to win by 3+30.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.0%

Away to win by 120.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.1%

Away to win by 219.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away15.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.1%

Home to win by 19.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away7.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.9%

Home to win by 23.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.8%

Home to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.561.7%

Away & Over 2.557.8%

Away & BTTS43.0%

Away & No BTTS26.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.6%

Draw & BTTS14.1%

Home & Over 2.511.4%

Away & Under 2.511.3%

Home & BTTS10.5%

Draw & Over 2.58.1%

Draw & Under 2.57.7%

BTTS & Under 2.56.0%

Home & No BTTS4.3%

Home & Under 2.53.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.2%

HT Over 1.555.0%

HT Away Win53.4%

HT/FT Away/Away47.8%

2nd Half More Goals47.7%

HT Under 1.545.0%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score31.4%

HT Draw29.7%

Equal Goals Each Half20.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.1%

HT Home Win16.9%

HT Under 0.515.8%

HT/FT Home/Home8.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

Corners (12)

Home Over 4.5 Corners73.2%

Over 8.5 Corners72.7%

Home Most Corners64.3%

Under 11.5 Corners63.1%

Over 9.5 Corners61.1%

Under 10.5 Corners51.3%

Over 10.5 Corners48.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners45.5%

Under 9.5 Corners38.9%

Over 11.5 Corners36.9%

Under 8.5 Corners27.3%

Away Most Corners24.8%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards90.2%

Under 4.5 Cards79.2%

Under 3.5 Cards61.7%

Over 2.5 Cards60.6%

Under 2.5 Cards39.4%

Over 3.5 Cards38.3%

Over 4.5 Cards20.8%

Over 0.5 Red Cards12.5%

Over 5.5 Cards9.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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