Brazil · Serie A

Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo

Kick-off 00:00 · Fri, Oct 30

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

Vasco DA Gama 24.2% Draw 17.7% Flamengo 58.1%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

83%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

X2 · Draw or Away covers 75.8% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 24.2% on the only losing outcome.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Flamengo: 11 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

X2 · Draw or Away

75.8%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

24.2%

Only the uncovered result loses

Vasco DA Gama

W L D D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 12:6 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

Flamengo

W W D W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 11:4 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 1

Vasco DA Gama 0wins ·1 draws ·Flamengo 0wins

Vasco DA Gama 2-2 FlamengoMay 3, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vasco DA Gama win24.2%

Draw17.7%

Flamengo win58.1%

Over 1.5 goals96.7%

Over 2.5 goals88.1%

Over 3.5 goals74.5%

Both teams to score83.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

89.8%

Over 2.5 Goals

87.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.584.3%

Goal in Both Halves84.3%

Home or Away (12)82.9%

Draw or Away (X2)74.9%

Draw No Bet - Away70.3%

Away Win58.3%

Home or Draw (1X)41.2%

Draw No Bet - Home29.7%

Home Win24.6%

Draw16.6%

Exactly 1 Goal3.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals95.8%

Over 2.5 Goals87.8%

Over 3.5 Goals74.2%

4+ Goals74.2%

Under 5.5 Goals60.6%

Over 4.5 Goals56.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals43.1%

Over 5.5 Goals39.4%

2-4 Goals38.9%

3-4 Goals30.8%

Under 3.5 Goals25.8%

1-3 Goals24.8%

2-3 Goals21.6%

Exactly 3 Goals13.6%

Under 2.5 Goals12.2%

1-2 Goals11.2%

Exactly 2 Goals8.0%

Under 1.5 Goals4.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.8%

Home Team to Score86.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.6%

Away Clean Sheet13.0%

Away Win to Nil12.4%

Home Clean Sheet4.7%

Home Win to Nil4.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 0.586.5%

Away Over 1.580.3%

Home Over 1.560.0%

Away Over 2.558.3%

Away 3+ Goals58.3%

Home Over 2.533.1%

Home 3+ Goals33.1%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 126.5%

Away Exactly 222.0%

Away Exactly 114.5%

Home Exactly 013.0%

Away Exactly 04.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away87.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home86.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)75.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home75.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)74.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away74.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)59.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home59.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)58.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)41.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home41.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)40.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away40.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)24.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)24.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away24.2%

Away to win by 3+24.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.2%

Away to win by 118.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.0%

Away to win by 216.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)12.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away12.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)12.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home12.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.1%

Home to win by 112.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.1%

Home to win by 27.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away5.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.4%

Home to win by 3+5.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.5%

Away & Over 2.553.5%

Away & BTTS45.9%

Home & Over 2.522.1%

Home & BTTS20.5%

Draw & BTTS16.0%

Away & No BTTS12.4%

Draw & Over 2.512.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.9%

Away & Under 2.54.8%

Draw & Under 2.54.5%

Home & No BTTS4.1%

BTTS & Under 2.53.9%

Home & Under 2.52.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.8%

HT Over 1.566.6%

2nd Half More Goals49.8%

HT Away Win47.4%

HT Both Teams Score44.7%

HT/FT Away/Away39.6%

HT Under 1.533.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw27.5%

HT Home Win25.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.8%

HT/FT Home/Home14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.9%

HT Under 0.510.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.7%

HT/FT Home/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners79.9%

Under 10.5 Corners70.1%

Home Most Corners67.6%

Home Over 4.5 Corners63.6%

Under 9.5 Corners58.2%

Over 8.5 Corners55.0%

Under 8.5 Corners45.0%

Over 9.5 Corners41.8%

Over 10.5 Corners29.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners29.0%

Away Most Corners21.2%

Over 11.5 Corners20.1%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards97.5%

Under 4.5 Cards92.7%

Under 3.5 Cards81.8%

Under 2.5 Cards62.0%

Over 2.5 Cards38.0%

Over 3.5 Cards18.2%

Over 0.5 Red Cards8.8%

Over 4.5 Cards7.3%

Over 5.5 Cards2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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