Brazil · Serie A

Vasco DA Gama vs Santos

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Vasco DA Gama 28.8% Draw 24.5% Santos 46.7%

Over 2.5 - 67% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Vasco DA Gama: 5 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.4%

Exact-score model probability

Vasco DA Gama

D D L L L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 3:9 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Santos

L D L W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 8:13 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vasco DA Gama win28.8%

Draw24.5%

Santos win46.7%

Over 1.5 goals86.8%

Over 2.5 goals66.5%

Over 3.5 goals44.7%

Both teams to score67.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

87.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

87.4%

Under 5.5 Goals

86.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.0%

Draw or Away (X2)70.0%

Both Halves Over 0.566.7%

Goal in Both Halves66.7%

Draw No Bet - Away61.5%

Home or Draw (1X)52.0%

Away Win47.9%

Draw No Bet - Home38.5%

Home Win30.0%

Draw22.0%

Exactly 1 Goal11.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.7%

Under 5.5 Goals86.7%

Over 1.5 Goals85.6%

Under 4.5 Goals74.0%

Over 2.5 Goals66.5%

2-4 Goals59.5%

Under 3.5 Goals55.3%

1-3 Goals52.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals44.7%

4+ Goals44.7%

2-3 Goals40.9%

3-4 Goals40.5%

Under 2.5 Goals33.5%

1-2 Goals30.2%

Over 4.5 Goals26.0%

Exactly 3 Goals21.8%

Exactly 2 Goals19.1%

Under 1.5 Goals14.4%

Over 5.5 Goals13.3%

Under 0.5 Goals3.3%

Exactly 0 Goals3.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score85.5%

Home Team to Score77.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.7%

Away Clean Sheet22.4%

Away Win to Nil19.2%

Home Clean Sheet14.5%

Home Win to Nil11.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.585.5%

Home Over 0.577.6%

Away Over 1.557.5%

Home Over 1.544.0%

Home Exactly 133.5%

Away Over 2.530.4%

Away 3+ Goals30.4%

Away Exactly 128.0%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 225.1%

Home Exactly 022.4%

Home Over 2.519.0%

Home 3+ Goals19.0%

Away Exactly 014.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)73.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home73.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)70.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away70.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)52.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home52.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)47.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)30.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)27.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away27.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.9%

Away to win by 120.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 116.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.5%

Away to win by 214.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away12.6%

Away to win by 3+12.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.7%

Home to win by 28.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.2%

Home to win by 3+5.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.556.9%

Away & Over 2.535.6%

Away & BTTS28.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.1%

Home & Over 2.521.5%

Away & No BTTS19.2%

Home & BTTS18.8%

Draw & BTTS18.8%

Draw & Under 2.512.6%

Away & Under 2.512.3%

Home & No BTTS11.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

Draw & Over 2.59.4%

BTTS & Under 2.59.4%

Home & Under 2.58.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.6%

HT Under 1.554.4%

2nd Half More Goals46.0%

HT Over 1.545.6%

HT Away Win37.8%

HT Draw35.9%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT/FT Away/Away30.0%

HT Both Teams Score28.4%

HT Home Win26.4%

Equal Goals Each Half22.2%

HT Under 0.521.4%

HT/FT Home/Home17.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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