Italy · Serie A

Venezia vs Fiorentina

Kick-off 19:45 · Fri, Sep 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Venezia 24.0% Draw 27.4% Fiorentina 48.6%

Over 2.5 - 73% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

80%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

65%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 10.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Fiorentina: 4 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Venezia 2 wins, 1 draws, Fiorentina 1 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.8%

Exact-score model probability

Venezia

L L L W D L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 8:12 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2

Fiorentina

L L L D W D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 4:10 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 4

Venezia 2wins ·1 draws ·Fiorentina 1wins

Venezia 2-1 FiorentinaMay 12, 2025

Venezia 0-0 FiorentinaAug 25, 2024

Venezia 0-1 FiorentinaApr 16, 2022

Venezia 1-0 FiorentinaOct 18, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Venezia win24.0%

Draw27.4%

Fiorentina win48.6%

Over 1.5 goals66.8%

Over 2.5 goals73.0%

Over 3.5 goals19.9%

Both teams to score65.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

86.0%

Home Over 0.5

86.0%

Under 4.5 Goals

83.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)82.6%

Home or Away (12)78.7%

Draw No Bet - Home77.9%

Home Win61.3%

Both Halves Over 0.558.2%

Goal in Both Halves58.2%

Draw or Away (X2)38.7%

Draw No Bet - Away22.1%

Draw21.3%

Away Win17.4%

Exactly 1 Goal15.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.5%

Under 5.5 Goals92.5%

Under 4.5 Goals83.1%

Over 1.5 Goals78.6%

Under 3.5 Goals66.8%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals55.5%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.5%

Under 2.5 Goals44.5%

1-2 Goals39.0%

3-4 Goals38.6%

Over 3.5 Goals33.2%

4+ Goals33.2%

Exactly 2 Goals23.1%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals21.4%

Over 4.5 Goals16.9%

Over 5.5 Goals7.5%

Under 0.5 Goals5.5%

Exactly 0 Goals5.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score86.0%

Away Team to Score60.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.6%

Home Clean Sheet39.1%

Home Win to Nil33.6%

Away Clean Sheet14.0%

Away Win to Nil8.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.586.0%

Away Over 0.560.9%

Home Over 1.558.5%

Away Exactly 039.1%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Over 2.531.4%

Home 3+ Goals31.4%

Home Exactly 127.5%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Over 1.524.2%

Away Exactly 217.2%

Home Exactly 014.0%

Away Over 2.56.9%

Away 3+ Goals6.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)61.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)38.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away38.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.3%

Home to win by 124.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 218.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.2%

Home to win by 3+18.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 111.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.3%

Away to win by 24.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.5%

Away to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.542.3%

Home & Over 2.540.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.534.4%

Home & No BTTS33.6%

Home & BTTS27.7%

Home & Under 2.521.3%

Draw & BTTS15.8%

Draw & Under 2.515.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.3%

BTTS & Under 2.510.1%

Away & Over 2.59.8%

Away & BTTS8.8%

Away & No BTTS8.5%

Away & Under 2.57.5%

Draw & Over 2.55.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.0%

HT Under 1.562.4%

HT Home Win45.0%

2nd Half More Goals44.2%

HT/FT Home/Home39.5%

HT Draw38.1%

HT Over 1.537.6%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT Under 0.527.0%

Equal Goals Each Half24.5%

HT Both Teams Score20.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.8%

HT Away Win16.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.7%

HT/FT Away/Away9.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions