Italy · Serie A

Venezia vs Lecce

Kick-off 17:30 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Venezia 38.1% Draw 34.5% Lecce 27.4%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

62%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lecce: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.1%

Exact-score model probability

Venezia

W D L L W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:10 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Lecce

W W L W D D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:5 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 2

Venezia 0wins ·1 draws ·Lecce 1wins

Venezia 1-1 LecceApr 6, 2025

Venezia 0-1 LecceNov 25, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Venezia win38.1%

Draw34.5%

Lecce win27.4%

Over 1.5 goals50.6%

Over 2.5 goals63.3%

Over 3.5 goals9.1%

Both teams to score62.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.5%

Home or Draw (1X)71.7%

Draw No Bet - Home62.0%

Draw or Away (X2)53.8%

Both Halves Over 0.553.4%

Goal in Both Halves53.4%

Home Win46.2%

Draw No Bet - Away38.0%

Away Win28.3%

Draw25.5%

Exactly 1 Goal18.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.7%

Over 0.5 Goals92.9%

Under 4.5 Goals87.1%

Over 1.5 Goals74.2%

Under 3.5 Goals72.6%

1-3 Goals65.5%

2-4 Goals61.2%

Under 2.5 Goals50.7%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals49.3%

2-3 Goals46.7%

1-2 Goals43.6%

3-4 Goals36.4%

Over 3.5 Goals27.4%

4+ Goals27.4%

Under 1.5 Goals25.8%

Exactly 2 Goals24.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Over 4.5 Goals12.9%

Under 0.5 Goals7.1%

Exactly 0 Goals7.1%

Over 5.5 Goals5.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.1%

Away Team to Score67.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.2%

Home Clean Sheet32.3%

Home Win to Nil25.2%

Away Clean Sheet21.9%

Away Win to Nil14.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.1%

Away Over 0.567.7%

Home Over 1.544.8%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Home Exactly 133.3%

Away Exactly 032.3%

Away Over 1.531.2%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Home Exactly 021.9%

Away Exactly 220.6%

Home Over 2.519.5%

Home 3+ Goals19.5%

Away Over 2.510.6%

Away 3+ Goals10.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)53.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away53.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)46.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.0%

Home to win by 123.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.1%

Away to win by 117.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.9%

Home to win by 213.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.2%

Home to win by 3+9.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.7%

Away to win by 27.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.4%

Away to win by 3+3.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.540.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.538.5%

Home & Over 2.527.3%

Home & No BTTS25.2%

Home & BTTS20.9%

Draw & Under 2.519.2%

Home & Under 2.518.9%

Draw & BTTS18.5%

Away & Over 2.515.8%

Away & No BTTS14.9%

Away & BTTS13.4%

Away & Under 2.512.5%

BTTS & Under 2.512.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.6%

Draw & Over 2.56.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.6%

HT Under 1.566.6%

2nd Half More Goals43.2%

HT Draw41.9%

HT Home Win34.6%

HT Over 1.533.4%

1st Half More Goals30.9%

HT Under 0.530.4%

HT/FT Home/Home27.9%

Equal Goals Each Half25.8%

HT Away Win23.5%

HT Both Teams Score19.7%

HT/FT Away/Away16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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