Germany · Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln

Kick-off 19:30 · Fri, Sep 4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

VfB Stuttgart 69.4% Draw 17.2% 1. FC Köln 13.2%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 87%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to VfB Stuttgart: 6 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

VfB Stuttgart

L D W D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 12:16 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2.67

1. FC Köln

W L L D L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 9:15 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.5

Head to head · last 5

VfB Stuttgart 4wins ·1 draws ·1. FC Köln 0wins

VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FC KölnFeb 14, 2026

VfB Stuttgart 2-1 1. FC KölnSep 28, 2025

VfB Stuttgart 1-1 1. FC KölnFeb 24, 2024

VfB Stuttgart 2-0 1. FC KölnSep 30, 2023

VfB Stuttgart 3-0 1. FC KölnFeb 18, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

VfB Stuttgart win69.4%

Draw17.2%

1. FC Köln win13.2%

Over 1.5 goals89.4%

Over 2.5 goals95.9%

Over 3.5 goals51.9%

Both teams to score87.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.0%

Over 2.5 Goals

87.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

86.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)86.4%

Home or Away (12)86.4%

Draw No Bet - Home85.5%

Both Halves Over 0.584.6%

Goal in Both Halves84.6%

Home Win73.9%

Draw or Away (X2)25.0%

Draw No Bet - Away14.5%

Draw12.5%

Away Win12.5%

Exactly 1 Goal3.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals95.2%

Over 2.5 Goals87.4%

Over 3.5 Goals74.0%

4+ Goals74.0%

Under 5.5 Goals60.7%

Over 4.5 Goals56.8%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Under 4.5 Goals43.2%

Over 5.5 Goals39.3%

2-4 Goals38.4%

3-4 Goals30.5%

Under 3.5 Goals26.0%

1-3 Goals24.3%

2-3 Goals21.3%

Exactly 3 Goals13.4%

Under 2.5 Goals12.6%

1-2 Goals10.9%

Exactly 2 Goals7.9%

Under 1.5 Goals4.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score77.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.4%

Home Clean Sheet21.0%

Home Win to Nil20.4%

Away Clean Sheet2.8%

Away Win to Nil2.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.0%

Away Over 0.577.9%

Home Over 2.568.0%

Home 3+ Goals68.0%

Away Over 1.545.3%

Away Exactly 132.6%

Away Exactly 225.2%

Away Exactly 021.0%

Away Over 2.520.1%

Away 3+ Goals20.1%

Home Exactly 218.0%

Home Exactly 110.1%

Home Exactly 02.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)75.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away75.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)59.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away59.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)57.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home57.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)41.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away41.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)39.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home39.0%

Home to win by 3+39.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)23.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home23.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 218.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.8%

Home to win by 116.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home12.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 17.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.4%

Away to win by 23.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.8%

Away to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.3%

Home & Over 2.567.9%

Home & BTTS53.4%

Home & No BTTS20.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.0%

Draw & BTTS11.9%

Away & Over 2.510.9%

Away & BTTS10.3%

Draw & Over 2.58.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Home & Under 2.56.0%

Draw & Under 2.53.9%

BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Away & No BTTS2.2%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.0%

HT Over 1.567.0%

HT Home Win59.2%

HT/FT Home/Home54.0%

2nd Half More Goals49.9%

HT Both Teams Score40.1%

HT Under 1.533.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw24.7%

Equal Goals Each Half17.7%

HT Away Win16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.7%

HT Under 0.510.0%

HT/FT Away/Away7.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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