UEFA Champions League

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Oct 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

VfB Stuttgart 53.8% Draw 18.5% Atletico Madrid 27.7%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atletico Madrid: 9 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.3%

Exact-score model probability

VfB Stuttgart

L W W L L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Atletico Madrid

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 14:2 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 0.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

VfB Stuttgart win53.8%

Draw18.5%

Atletico Madrid win27.7%

Over 1.5 goals96.5%

Over 2.5 goals87.6%

Over 3.5 goals73.5%

Both teams to score83.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

89.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

89.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.583.8%

Goal in Both Halves83.8%

Home or Away (12)82.3%

Home or Draw (1X)71.5%

Draw No Bet - Home65.8%

Home Win54.1%

Draw or Away (X2)45.6%

Draw No Bet - Away34.2%

Away Win28.2%

Draw17.4%

Exactly 1 Goal3.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals95.6%

Over 2.5 Goals87.3%

Over 3.5 Goals73.3%

4+ Goals73.3%

Under 5.5 Goals61.8%

Over 4.5 Goals55.7%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals44.3%

2-4 Goals39.9%

Over 5.5 Goals38.2%

3-4 Goals31.5%

Under 3.5 Goals26.7%

1-3 Goals25.7%

2-3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 3 Goals14.0%

Under 2.5 Goals12.7%

1-2 Goals11.7%

Exactly 2 Goals8.4%

Under 1.5 Goals4.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.1%

Away Team to Score87.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.2%

Home Clean Sheet12.0%

Home Win to Nil11.3%

Away Clean Sheet5.6%

Away Win to Nil4.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.1%

Away Over 0.587.7%

Home Over 1.578.0%

Away Over 1.562.3%

Home Over 2.554.8%

Home 3+ Goals54.8%

Away Over 2.535.4%

Away 3+ Goals35.4%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 125.4%

Home Exactly 223.2%

Home Exactly 116.1%

Away Exactly 012.0%

Home Exactly 05.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)78.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away78.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)63.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away63.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)54.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)45.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away45.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)36.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home36.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.9%

Home to win by 3+20.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 118.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 215.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.3%

Away to win by 113.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.2%

Away to win by 28.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.7%

Away to win by 3+6.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.7%

Home & Over 2.549.4%

Home & BTTS42.8%

Away & Over 2.525.2%

Away & BTTS23.3%

Draw & BTTS16.7%

Draw & Over 2.512.6%

Home & No BTTS11.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.3%

Away & No BTTS4.9%

Draw & Under 2.54.8%

Home & Under 2.54.7%

BTTS & Under 2.54.1%

Away & Under 2.52.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.5%

HT Over 1.565.8%

2nd Half More Goals49.7%

HT Both Teams Score44.7%

HT Home Win44.5%

HT/FT Home/Home36.1%

HT Under 1.534.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw28.2%

HT Away Win27.4%

Equal Goals Each Half17.9%

HT/FT Away/Away17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.3%

HT Under 0.510.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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