Spain · La Liga

Villarreal vs Elche

Kick-off 15:15 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

Villarreal 69.2% Draw 17.2% Elche 13.4%

Over 2.5 - 70% BTTS - 90%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

88%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

86%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 6%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Villarreal: 9 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Villarreal

W L W W L L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 12:9 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

Elche

D W L D L L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Villarreal 3wins ·0 draws ·Elche 2wins

Villarreal 2-1 ElcheMar 8, 2026

Villarreal 3-1 ElcheJan 3, 2026

Villarreal 1-3 ElcheFeb 4, 2023

Villarreal 4-0 ElcheSep 4, 2022

Villarreal 0-1 ElcheJan 16, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Villarreal win69.2%

Draw17.2%

Elche win13.4%

Over 1.5 goals87.6%

Over 2.5 goals69.7%

Over 3.5 goals48.5%

Both teams to score90.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.7%

Over 2.5 Goals

89.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.7%

Goal in Both Halves85.7%

Home or Away (12)83.4%

Home or Draw (1X)75.9%

Draw No Bet - Home71.8%

Home Win59.8%

Draw or Away (X2)39.6%

Draw No Bet - Away28.2%

Away Win23.5%

Draw16.0%

Exactly 1 Goal2.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals96.2%

Over 2.5 Goals89.1%

Over 3.5 Goals76.5%

4+ Goals76.5%

Over 4.5 Goals60.0%

Under 5.5 Goals57.4%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Over 5.5 Goals42.6%

Under 4.5 Goals40.0%

2-4 Goals36.2%

3-4 Goals29.1%

Under 3.5 Goals23.5%

1-3 Goals22.4%

2-3 Goals19.7%

Exactly 3 Goals12.5%

Under 2.5 Goals10.9%

1-2 Goals9.8%

Exactly 2 Goals7.1%

Under 1.5 Goals3.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.3%

Away Team to Score86.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.7%

Home Clean Sheet12.5%

Home Win to Nil12.0%

Away Clean Sheet4.1%

Away Win to Nil3.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.3%

Away Over 0.586.9%

Home Over 1.582.3%

Home Over 2.561.4%

Home 3+ Goals61.4%

Away Over 1.561.0%

Away Over 2.534.1%

Away 3+ Goals34.1%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 125.9%

Home Exactly 220.9%

Home Exactly 113.1%

Away Exactly 012.5%

Home Exactly 04.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away85.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)59.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)57.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away57.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)42.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home42.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)26.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home26.0%

Home to win by 3+26.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 117.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.1%

Home to win by 216.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 111.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.8%

Away to win by 26.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.2%

Away to win by 3+5.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.9%

Home & Over 2.555.6%

Home & BTTS47.9%

Away & Over 2.521.4%

Away & BTTS20.0%

Draw & BTTS15.5%

Draw & Over 2.512.1%

Home & No BTTS12.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.9%

Home & Under 2.54.3%

Draw & Under 2.53.9%

Away & No BTTS3.6%

BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.7%

HT Over 1.568.6%

2nd Half More Goals50.1%

HT Home Win48.8%

HT Both Teams Score46.3%

HT/FT Home/Home41.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.4%

HT Draw26.7%

HT Away Win24.5%

Equal Goals Each Half17.4%

HT/FT Away/Away14.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.9%

HT Under 0.59.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away2.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions