Spain · La Liga

Villarreal vs Espanyol

Kick-off 21:00 · Fri, Oct 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

66% confidence

Villarreal 66.0% Draw 20.3% Espanyol 13.6%

Over 2.5 - 58% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

81%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Villarreal: 10 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.3%

Exact-score model probability

Villarreal

W L D W L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Espanyol

L L D L L W

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Villarreal 5wins ·0 draws ·Espanyol 0wins

Villarreal 4-1 EspanyolFeb 9, 2026

Villarreal 2-0 EspanyolNov 8, 2025

Villarreal 1-0 EspanyolApr 27, 2025

Villarreal 2-1 EspanyolSep 26, 2024

Villarreal 4-2 EspanyolApr 27, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Villarreal win66.0%

Draw20.3%

Espanyol win13.6%

Over 1.5 goals81.0%

Over 2.5 goals58.3%

Over 3.5 goals35.9%

Both teams to score80.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

86.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

86.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)83.0%

Home or Draw (1X)81.9%

Draw No Bet - Home78.5%

Both Halves Over 0.576.0%

Goal in Both Halves76.0%

Home Win65.1%

Draw or Away (X2)34.7%

Draw No Bet - Away21.5%

Away Win17.9%

Draw16.8%

Exactly 1 Goal6.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals91.7%

Over 2.5 Goals78.2%

Under 5.5 Goals76.2%

Under 4.5 Goals60.0%

Over 3.5 Goals59.5%

4+ Goals59.5%

2-4 Goals51.7%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals40.5%

Over 4.5 Goals40.0%

1-3 Goals38.7%

3-4 Goals38.2%

2-3 Goals32.2%

Over 5.5 Goals23.8%

Under 2.5 Goals21.8%

1-2 Goals20.0%

Exactly 3 Goals18.7%

Exactly 2 Goals13.5%

Under 1.5 Goals8.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.3%

Away Team to Score75.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.2%

Home Clean Sheet24.1%

Home Win to Nil22.6%

Away Clean Sheet6.4%

Away Win to Nil4.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.3%

Home Over 1.575.7%

Away Over 0.575.6%

Home Over 2.551.4%

Home 3+ Goals51.4%

Away Over 1.541.4%

Away Exactly 134.3%

Away Exactly 224.3%

Home Exactly 224.2%

Away Exactly 024.1%

Home Exactly 117.7%

Away Over 2.517.1%

Away 3+ Goals17.1%

Home Exactly 06.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)65.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)45.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home45.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)34.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away34.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)26.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home26.7%

Home to win by 3+26.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.1%

Home to win by 120.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 218.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.4%

Away to win by 110.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.9%

Away to win by 24.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.5%

Away to win by 3+2.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.564.7%

Home & Over 2.555.0%

Home & BTTS42.5%

Home & No BTTS22.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.5%

Draw & BTTS15.2%

Away & Over 2.514.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.6%

Away & BTTS13.0%

Home & Under 2.510.1%

Draw & Over 2.59.2%

Draw & Under 2.57.6%

BTTS & Under 2.56.1%

Away & No BTTS4.9%

Away & Under 2.53.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.6%

HT Over 1.555.8%

HT Home Win50.7%

2nd Half More Goals47.9%

HT/FT Home/Home44.4%

HT Under 1.544.2%

HT Both Teams Score33.5%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw30.1%

Equal Goals Each Half19.9%

HT Away Win19.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.4%

HT Under 0.515.4%

HT/FT Away/Away10.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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