Spain · La Liga

Villarreal vs Levante

Kick-off 17:30 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

Villarreal 68.8% Draw 17.1% Levante 14.0%

Over 2.5 - 70% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

88%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

86%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 5.8%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Levante: 4 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.8%

Exact-score model probability

Villarreal

W L L L L D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 10:12 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2

Levante

L D W D L L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 4

Villarreal 3wins ·0 draws ·Levante 1wins

Villarreal 5-1 LevanteMay 2, 2026

Villarreal 1-0 LevanteFeb 18, 2026

Villarreal 0-2 LevanteApr 2, 2022

Villarreal 5-0 LevanteJan 3, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Villarreal win68.8%

Draw17.1%

Levante win14.0%

Over 1.5 goals87.9%

Over 2.5 goals70.4%

Over 3.5 goals49.4%

Both teams to score90.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.7%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.7%

Goal in Both Halves88.7%

Home or Away (12)85.9%

Home or Draw (1X)84.0%

Draw No Bet - Home83.5%

Home Win71.7%

Draw or Away (X2)26.4%

Draw No Bet - Away16.5%

Away Win14.2%

Draw12.3%

Exactly 1 Goal1.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals96.0%

Over 2.5 Goals90.8%

Over 3.5 Goals80.8%

4+ Goals80.8%

Over 4.5 Goals66.4%

Under 5.5 Goals50.2%

Over 5.5 Goals49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

Total Goals Even49.1%

Under 4.5 Goals33.6%

2-4 Goals29.6%

3-4 Goals24.4%

Under 3.5 Goals19.2%

1-3 Goals17.0%

2-3 Goals15.2%

Exactly 3 Goals10.0%

Under 2.5 Goals9.2%

1-2 Goals7.0%

Exactly 2 Goals5.2%

Under 1.5 Goals4.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score83.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.6%

Home Clean Sheet15.0%

Home Win to Nil14.7%

Away Clean Sheet2.0%

Away Win to Nil1.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.588.2%

Away Over 0.583.2%

Home Over 2.572.7%

Home 3+ Goals72.7%

Away Over 1.555.0%

Away Over 2.528.5%

Away 3+ Goals28.5%

Away Exactly 128.2%

Away Exactly 226.5%

Home Exactly 215.5%

Away Exactly 015.0%

Home Exactly 18.0%

Home Exactly 02.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)92.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away85.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)74.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away74.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)59.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away59.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)55.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home55.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)42.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away42.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)38.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home38.9%

Home to win by 3+38.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)26.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away26.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home24.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 115.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)12.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home12.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.7%

Away to win by 17.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 23.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.5%

Away to win by 3+2.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.1%

Home & Over 2.568.1%

Home & BTTS57.0%

Home & No BTTS14.7%

Away & Over 2.513.0%

Away & BTTS12.4%

Draw & BTTS12.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.7%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.0%

Home & Under 2.53.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.3%

Away & No BTTS1.7%

Away & Under 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.5%

HT Over 1.573.2%

HT Home Win58.8%

HT/FT Home/Home53.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.0%

HT Both Teams Score47.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.526.8%

HT Draw23.3%

HT Away Win17.9%

Equal Goals Each Half16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.6%

HT/FT Away/Away8.2%

HT Under 0.57.5%

HT/FT Away/Home5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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