UEFA Champions League

Villarreal vs Napoli

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Oct 13

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Villarreal 35.6% Draw 17.2% Napoli 47.2%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 90%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

90%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Napoli: 6 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.3%

Exact-score model probability

Villarreal

L W W L L L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 11:11 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Napoli

W D W L L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Villarreal win35.6%

Draw17.2%

Napoli win47.2%

Over 1.5 goals98.5%

Over 2.5 goals93.8%

Over 3.5 goals84.8%

Both teams to score90.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

89.9%

Both Halves Over 0.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.9%

Goal in Both Halves89.9%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Draw or Away (X2)63.6%

Draw No Bet - Away56.9%

Home or Draw (1X)52.1%

Away Win47.1%

Draw No Bet - Home43.1%

Home Win35.6%

Draw16.5%

Exactly 1 Goal1.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals97.5%

Over 2.5 Goals93.0%

Over 3.5 Goals84.1%

4+ Goals84.1%

Over 4.5 Goals70.8%

Over 5.5 Goals54.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 5.5 Goals45.3%

Under 4.5 Goals29.2%

2-4 Goals26.7%

3-4 Goals22.3%

Under 3.5 Goals15.9%

1-3 Goals14.8%

2-3 Goals13.3%

Exactly 3 Goals8.9%

Under 2.5 Goals7.0%

1-2 Goals5.9%

Exactly 2 Goals4.4%

Under 1.5 Goals2.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.1%

Home Team to Score93.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)89.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)10.6%

Away Clean Sheet5.9%

Away Win to Nil5.7%

Home Clean Sheet4.1%

Home Win to Nil3.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.1%

Home Over 0.593.3%

Away Over 1.582.0%

Home Over 1.576.5%

Away Over 2.561.0%

Away 3+ Goals61.0%

Home Over 2.552.9%

Home 3+ Goals52.9%

Home Exactly 223.6%

Away Exactly 220.9%

Home Exactly 116.7%

Away Exactly 113.1%

Home Exactly 05.9%

Away Exactly 04.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)89.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home89.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)81.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home81.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away77.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)68.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home68.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)63.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away63.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)52.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home52.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)47.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)35.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)31.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away31.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)21.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home21.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away18.1%

Away to win by 3+18.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.0%

Away to win by 116.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.1%

Home to win by 114.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.0%

Away to win by 213.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.4%

Home to win by 3+11.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.1%

Home to win by 210.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.587.2%

Away & Over 2.545.0%

Away & BTTS41.4%

Home & Over 2.534.0%

Home & BTTS31.8%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

Draw & Over 2.514.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.9%

Away & No BTTS5.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.0%

Home & No BTTS3.9%

Draw & Under 2.52.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.2%

Away & Under 2.52.0%

Home & Under 2.51.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.3%

HT Over 1.575.2%

HT Both Teams Score54.7%

2nd Half More Goals51.4%

HT Away Win41.0%

HT Home Win33.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Away/Away31.3%

HT Draw25.7%

HT Under 1.524.8%

HT/FT Home/Home22.7%

Equal Goals Each Half16.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.8%

HT Under 0.56.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.9%

HT/FT Home/Away5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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