Portugal · Primeira Liga

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia

Kick-off 18:00 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

67% confidence

Vitória SC 67.1% Draw 20.6% Casa Pia 12.3%

Over 2.5 - 45% BTTS - 33%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 20.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Vitória SC: 6 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

20.5%

Exact-score model probability

Vitória SC

L W L L L W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

Casa Pia

L L L L W D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 2:11 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 2

Vitória SC 1wins ·1 draws ·Casa Pia 0wins

Vitória SC 1-0 Casa PiaMar 1, 2025

Vitória SC 1-1 Casa PiaSep 28, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vitória SC win67.1%

Draw20.6%

Casa Pia win12.3%

Over 1.5 goals69.9%

Over 2.5 goals44.5%

Over 3.5 goals23.3%

Both teams to score32.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

88.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

88.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.3%

Draw No Bet - Home84.3%

Home or Away (12)74.5%

Home Win62.8%

Both Halves Over 0.539.7%

Goal in Both Halves39.7%

Draw or Away (X2)37.1%

Exactly 1 Goal27.0%

Draw25.5%

Draw No Bet - Away15.7%

Away Win11.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.3%

Under 4.5 Goals94.7%

Over 0.5 Goals86.5%

Under 3.5 Goals85.7%

1-3 Goals72.2%

Under 2.5 Goals67.6%

Over 1.5 Goals59.5%

2-4 Goals54.2%

1-2 Goals54.1%

Total Goals Even50.9%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

2-3 Goals45.1%

Under 1.5 Goals40.5%

Over 2.5 Goals32.4%

Exactly 2 Goals27.1%

3-4 Goals27.1%

Exactly 3 Goals18.1%

Over 3.5 Goals14.3%

4+ Goals14.3%

Under 0.5 Goals13.5%

Exactly 0 Goals13.5%

Over 4.5 Goals5.3%

Over 5.5 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)69.9%

Home Clean Sheet61.4%

Home Win to Nil48.0%

Away Team to Score38.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)30.1%

Away Clean Sheet22.0%

Away Win to Nil8.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.0%

Away Exactly 061.4%

Home Over 1.544.7%

Away Over 0.538.6%

Home Exactly 133.3%

Away Exactly 129.9%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Home Exactly 022.0%

Home Over 2.519.5%

Home 3+ Goals19.5%

Away Over 1.58.6%

Away Exactly 27.3%

Away Over 2.51.3%

Away 3+ Goals1.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)66.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away66.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)33.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home33.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw29.0%

Home to win by 129.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 219.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.2%

Home to win by 3+14.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.3%

Away to win by 19.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.0%

Away to win by 22.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.557.6%

Home & No BTTS48.0%

Home & Under 2.536.0%

Home & Over 2.526.9%

Draw & Under 2.523.5%

BTTS & Over 2.520.1%

Home & BTTS14.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.3%

Draw & BTTS12.0%

BTTS & Under 2.510.0%

Away & No BTTS8.5%

Away & Under 2.58.2%

Away & Over 2.53.5%

Away & BTTS3.2%

Draw & Over 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.577.2%

HT Over 0.559.4%

HT Draw46.9%

HT Home Win42.4%

HT Under 0.540.6%

2nd Half More Goals39.9%

HT/FT Home/Home38.9%

Equal Goals Each Half30.6%

1st Half More Goals29.5%

HT Over 1.522.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home22.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw19.3%

HT Away Win10.7%

HT Both Teams Score9.7%

HT/FT Away/Away6.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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