Portugal · Primeira Liga

Vitória SC vs Maritimo

Kick-off 20:45 · Fri, Oct 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Vitória SC 51.3% Draw 26.7% Maritimo 22.0%

Over 2.5 - 37% BTTS - 57%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Vitória SC: 5 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.8%

Exact-score model probability

Vitória SC

L D L D L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 3:6 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1

Maritimo

L D L L L D

Form 0-2-4 Goals 6:13 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vitória SC win51.3%

Draw26.7%

Maritimo win22.0%

Over 1.5 goals63.8%

Over 2.5 goals37.4%

Over 3.5 goals17.8%

Both teams to score57.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.0%

Home or Draw (1X)70.3%

Draw No Bet - Home60.4%

Both Halves Over 0.555.7%

Goal in Both Halves55.7%

Draw or Away (X2)54.7%

Home Win45.3%

Draw No Bet - Away39.6%

Away Win29.7%

Draw25.0%

Exactly 1 Goal17.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals93.8%

Over 0.5 Goals93.7%

Under 4.5 Goals85.3%

Over 1.5 Goals76.4%

Under 3.5 Goals69.9%

1-3 Goals63.6%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals52.3%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals47.7%

2-3 Goals46.2%

1-2 Goals41.4%

3-4 Goals37.6%

Over 3.5 Goals30.1%

4+ Goals30.1%

Exactly 2 Goals24.0%

Under 1.5 Goals23.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals14.7%

Under 0.5 Goals6.3%

Exactly 0 Goals6.3%

Over 5.5 Goals6.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.9%

Away Team to Score70.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.6%

Home Clean Sheet29.8%

Home Win to Nil23.5%

Away Clean Sheet21.1%

Away Win to Nil14.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.9%

Away Over 0.570.2%

Home Over 1.546.1%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Away Over 1.534.2%

Home Exactly 132.8%

Away Exactly 029.8%

Home Exactly 225.5%

Away Exactly 221.9%

Home Exactly 021.1%

Home Over 2.520.6%

Home 3+ Goals20.6%

Away Over 2.512.3%

Away 3+ Goals12.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)77.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away77.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)54.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away54.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)45.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)29.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)22.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home22.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.4%

Home to win by 122.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.4%

Away to win by 117.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.7%

Home to win by 213.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.3%

Home to win by 3+9.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.3%

Away to win by 28.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.0%

Away to win by 3+4.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.543.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.9%

Home & Over 2.527.9%

Home & No BTTS23.5%

Home & BTTS21.8%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

Draw & Under 2.518.1%

Away & Over 2.517.5%

Home & Under 2.517.4%

Away & BTTS14.9%

Away & No BTTS14.8%

Away & Under 2.512.2%

BTTS & Under 2.511.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.2%

HT Under 1.564.6%

2nd Half More Goals43.7%

HT Draw40.9%

HT Over 1.535.4%

HT Home Win34.4%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.528.8%

HT/FT Home/Home27.4%

Equal Goals Each Half25.2%

HT Away Win24.7%

HT Both Teams Score21.2%

HT/FT Away/Away17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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