Portugal · Primeira Liga

Vitória SC vs Moreirense

Kick-off 15:30 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Vitória SC 53.5% Draw 26.8% Moreirense 19.7%

Over 2.5 - 36% BTTS - 59%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 10%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Moreirense: 4 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Vitória SC 1 wins, 1 draws, Moreirense 0 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10%

Exact-score model probability

Vitória SC

L D L W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 4:8 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Moreirense

W L L W L D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:13 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 2

Vitória SC 1wins ·1 draws ·Moreirense 0wins

Vitória SC 2-2 MoreirenseMar 30, 2025

Vitória SC 1-0 MoreirenseNov 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vitória SC win53.5%

Draw26.8%

Moreirense win19.7%

Over 1.5 goals62.8%

Over 2.5 goals36.1%

Over 3.5 goals16.9%

Both teams to score58.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

89.7%

Under 5.5 Goals

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)84.5%

Draw No Bet - Home81.0%

Home or Away (12)80.9%

Home Win65.5%

Both Halves Over 0.563.4%

Goal in Both Halves63.4%

Draw or Away (X2)34.5%

Draw19.0%

Draw No Bet - Away19.0%

Away Win15.4%

Exactly 1 Goal12.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.9%

Under 5.5 Goals89.4%

Over 1.5 Goals83.0%

Under 4.5 Goals77.9%

Over 2.5 Goals62.2%

2-4 Goals60.9%

Under 3.5 Goals60.0%

1-3 Goals55.9%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.0%

3-4 Goals40.1%

Over 3.5 Goals40.0%

4+ Goals40.0%

Under 2.5 Goals37.8%

1-2 Goals33.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.8%

Under 1.5 Goals17.0%

Over 5.5 Goals10.6%

Under 0.5 Goals4.1%

Exactly 0 Goals4.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.2%

Away Team to Score62.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.2%

Home Clean Sheet37.4%

Home Win to Nil33.3%

Away Clean Sheet10.8%

Away Win to Nil6.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.2%

Home Over 1.565.2%

Away Over 0.562.6%

Home Over 2.538.5%

Home 3+ Goals38.5%

Away Exactly 037.4%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Away Over 1.525.8%

Home Exactly 124.0%

Away Exactly 218.1%

Home Exactly 010.8%

Away Over 2.57.7%

Away 3+ Goals7.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)77.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away77.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)65.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)57.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away57.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)42.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home42.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)34.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away34.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.1%

Home to win by 123.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)22.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home22.7%

Home to win by 3+22.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.6%

Home to win by 219.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.2%

Away to win by 110.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.8%

Away to win by 23.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.4%

Away to win by 3+1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.547.0%

Home & Over 2.546.5%

Home & No BTTS33.3%

Home & BTTS32.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.528.9%

Home & Under 2.519.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.2%

Draw & BTTS15.0%

Draw & Under 2.512.8%

Away & Over 2.59.5%

BTTS & Under 2.58.8%

Away & BTTS8.7%

Away & No BTTS6.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.2%

Away & Under 2.55.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.4%

HT Under 1.557.6%

HT Home Win48.7%

2nd Half More Goals45.3%

HT/FT Home/Home43.4%

HT Over 1.542.4%

HT Draw35.2%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Under 0.523.6%

Equal Goals Each Half23.1%

HT Both Teams Score22.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.7%

HT Away Win16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.7%

HT/FT Away/Away8.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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