Portugal · Primeira Liga

Vitória SC vs Nacional

Kick-off 15:30 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

57% confidence

Vitória SC 57.2% Draw 23.5% Nacional 19.3%

Over 2.5 - 45% BTTS - 60%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

60%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Nacional: 6 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.7%

Exact-score model probability

Vitória SC

L L L W W L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Nacional

W D W L L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 2

Vitória SC 1wins ·1 draws ·Nacional 0wins

Vitória SC 2-1 NacionalMay 3, 2025

Vitória SC 2-2 NacionalDec 23, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vitória SC win57.2%

Draw23.5%

Nacional win19.3%

Over 1.5 goals70.2%

Over 2.5 goals44.9%

Over 3.5 goals23.6%

Both teams to score60.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.2%

Home Team to Score

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.2%

Home or Draw (1X)78.0%

Draw No Bet - Home72.2%

Both Halves Over 0.565.6%

Goal in Both Halves65.6%

Home Win57.2%

Draw or Away (X2)42.8%

Draw No Bet - Away27.8%

Away Win22.0%

Draw20.8%

Exactly 1 Goal11.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.5%

Under 5.5 Goals87.7%

Over 1.5 Goals84.7%

Under 4.5 Goals75.3%

Over 2.5 Goals65.1%

2-4 Goals60.1%

Under 3.5 Goals56.9%

1-3 Goals53.4%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals43.1%

4+ Goals43.1%

2-3 Goals41.6%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.9%

1-2 Goals31.4%

Over 4.5 Goals24.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Exactly 2 Goals19.7%

Under 1.5 Goals15.3%

Over 5.5 Goals12.3%

Under 0.5 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.8%

Away Team to Score71.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.5%

Home Clean Sheet28.8%

Home Win to Nil25.3%

Away Clean Sheet12.1%

Away Win to Nil8.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.8%

Away Over 0.571.1%

Home Over 1.562.2%

Away Exactly 135.9%

Away Over 1.535.3%

Home Over 2.535.2%

Home 3+ Goals35.2%

Away Exactly 028.8%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 125.6%

Away Exactly 222.3%

Away Over 2.513.0%

Away 3+ Goals13.0%

Home Exactly 012.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)78.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home78.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)65.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away65.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)57.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)42.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away42.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)34.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home34.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.3%

Home to win by 122.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)22.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.6%

Home to win by 3+17.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.3%

Home to win by 217.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.2%

Away to win by 113.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.0%

Away to win by 26.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.8%

Away to win by 3+2.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.553.3%

Home & Over 2.542.0%

Home & BTTS31.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.7%

Home & No BTTS25.3%

Draw & BTTS17.3%

Home & Under 2.515.2%

Away & Over 2.514.9%

Away & BTTS13.3%

Draw & Under 2.512.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.7%

BTTS & Under 2.59.2%

Away & No BTTS8.6%

Draw & Over 2.58.1%

Away & Under 2.57.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.9%

HT Under 1.555.5%

2nd Half More Goals45.7%

HT Over 1.544.5%

HT Home Win43.5%

HT/FT Home/Home36.9%

HT Draw35.5%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score26.3%

Equal Goals Each Half22.5%

HT Under 0.522.1%

HT Away Win20.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.8%

HT/FT Away/Away12.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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