Brazil · Serie A

Vitoria vs Bahia

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

Vitoria 35.8% Draw 25.1% Bahia 39.1%

Over 2.5 - 66% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bahia: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.6%

Exact-score model probability

Vitoria

W L L L D W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 2:8 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Bahia

D D D D D W

Form 1-5-0 Goals 7:5 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vitoria win35.8%

Draw25.1%

Bahia win39.1%

Over 1.5 goals86.6%

Over 2.5 goals66.0%

Over 3.5 goals44.2%

Both teams to score68.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.1%

Under 5.5 Goals

87.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.4%

Both Halves Over 0.566.3%

Goal in Both Halves66.3%

Draw or Away (X2)62.9%

Home or Draw (1X)59.7%

Draw No Bet - Away52.1%

Draw No Bet - Home47.9%

Away Win40.3%

Home Win37.0%

Draw22.6%

Exactly 1 Goal11.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.7%

Under 5.5 Goals87.1%

Over 1.5 Goals85.3%

Under 4.5 Goals74.4%

Over 2.5 Goals66.0%

2-4 Goals59.7%

Under 3.5 Goals55.8%

1-3 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals44.2%

4+ Goals44.2%

2-3 Goals41.1%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.0%

1-2 Goals30.6%

Over 4.5 Goals25.6%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Exactly 2 Goals19.3%

Under 1.5 Goals14.7%

Over 5.5 Goals12.9%

Under 0.5 Goals3.3%

Exactly 0 Goals3.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score82.4%

Home Team to Score81.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.2%

Away Clean Sheet19.0%

Home Clean Sheet17.6%

Away Win to Nil15.7%

Home Win to Nil14.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.582.4%

Home Over 0.581.0%

Away Over 1.551.9%

Home Over 1.549.4%

Home Exactly 131.5%

Away Exactly 130.5%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 226.2%

Away Over 2.525.3%

Away 3+ Goals25.3%

Home Over 2.523.2%

Home 3+ Goals23.2%

Home Exactly 019.0%

Away Exactly 017.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)81.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away81.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)62.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away62.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)59.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home59.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)37.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)21.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away21.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.3%

Away to win by 119.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home18.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 118.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.0%

Away to win by 212.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.0%

Home to win by 211.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.9%

Away to win by 3+8.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.6%

Home to win by 3+7.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.557.1%

Away & Over 2.529.5%

Home & Over 2.526.9%

Away & BTTS24.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.3%

Home & BTTS22.8%

Draw & BTTS19.3%

Away & No BTTS15.7%

Home & No BTTS14.2%

Draw & Under 2.513.0%

Away & Under 2.510.8%

Home & Under 2.510.1%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

BTTS & Under 2.59.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.4%

HT Under 1.554.8%

2nd Half More Goals45.9%

HT Over 1.545.2%

HT Draw36.3%

HT Away Win32.9%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Home Win30.8%

HT Both Teams Score28.6%

HT/FT Away/Away24.6%

Equal Goals Each Half22.3%

HT/FT Home/Home22.3%

HT Under 0.521.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners72.0%

Over 8.5 Corners64.3%

Under 10.5 Corners60.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners56.7%

Over 9.5 Corners51.6%

Away Over 4.5 Corners51.5%

Under 9.5 Corners48.4%

Home Most Corners47.2%

Away Most Corners39.9%

Over 10.5 Corners39.1%

Under 8.5 Corners35.7%

Over 11.5 Corners28.0%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards80.4%

Over 2.5 Cards74.3%

Under 4.5 Cards65.3%

Over 3.5 Cards54.2%

Under 3.5 Cards45.8%

Over 4.5 Cards34.7%

Under 2.5 Cards25.7%

Over 5.5 Cards19.6%

Over 0.5 Red Cards15.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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