Brazil · Serie A

Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc

Kick-off 00:00 · Thu, Oct 8

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Vitoria 31.5% Draw 25.6% Chapecoense-sc 42.9%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 66%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.1%

Exact-score model probability

Vitoria

L D W L W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Chapecoense-sc

L W L W D L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:11 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vitoria win31.5%

Draw25.6%

Chapecoense-sc win42.9%

Over 1.5 goals85.1%

Over 2.5 goals63.4%

Over 3.5 goals41.3%

Both teams to score65.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

89.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

89.7%

Under 5.5 Goals

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.1%

Draw or Away (X2)67.2%

Both Halves Over 0.564.3%

Goal in Both Halves64.3%

Draw No Bet - Away57.4%

Home or Draw (1X)55.8%

Away Win44.2%

Draw No Bet - Home42.6%

Home Win32.8%

Draw22.9%

Exactly 1 Goal12.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.2%

Under 5.5 Goals88.7%

Over 1.5 Goals83.8%

Under 4.5 Goals76.8%

Over 2.5 Goals63.4%

2-4 Goals60.6%

Under 3.5 Goals58.7%

1-3 Goals54.9%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.5%

Over 3.5 Goals41.3%

4+ Goals41.3%

3-4 Goals40.3%

Under 2.5 Goals36.6%

1-2 Goals32.7%

Over 4.5 Goals23.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.3%

Under 1.5 Goals16.2%

Over 5.5 Goals11.3%

Under 0.5 Goals3.8%

Exactly 0 Goals3.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score83.0%

Home Team to Score77.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.6%

Away Clean Sheet22.3%

Away Win to Nil18.5%

Home Clean Sheet17.0%

Home Win to Nil13.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.583.0%

Home Over 0.577.7%

Away Over 1.552.8%

Home Over 1.544.2%

Home Exactly 133.5%

Away Exactly 130.1%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Away Over 2.526.1%

Away 3+ Goals26.1%

Home Exactly 225.1%

Home Exactly 022.3%

Home Over 2.519.1%

Home 3+ Goals19.1%

Away Exactly 017.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)76.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home76.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)67.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away67.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)55.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home55.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)44.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)32.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)23.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away23.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.6%

Away to win by 120.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.5%

Home to win by 117.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home15.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.3%

Away to win by 213.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.3%

Away to win by 3+10.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.6%

Home to win by 29.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.8%

Home to win by 3+5.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.554.4%

Away & Over 2.531.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.5%

Away & BTTS25.7%

Home & Over 2.522.9%

Home & BTTS19.6%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Away & No BTTS18.5%

Draw & Under 2.513.9%

Home & No BTTS13.2%

Away & Under 2.512.7%

BTTS & Under 2.510.1%

Home & Under 2.510.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.1%

Draw & Over 2.59.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.0%

HT Under 1.556.7%

2nd Half More Goals45.5%

HT Over 1.543.3%

HT Draw37.1%

HT Away Win35.1%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Home Win27.9%

HT/FT Away/Away27.2%

HT Both Teams Score27.0%

HT Under 0.523.0%

Equal Goals Each Half22.8%

HT/FT Home/Home19.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners71.6%

Home Over 4.5 Corners67.4%

Under 11.5 Corners64.4%

Over 9.5 Corners59.8%

Home Most Corners55.5%

Under 10.5 Corners52.6%

Away Over 4.5 Corners51.5%

Over 10.5 Corners47.4%

Under 9.5 Corners40.2%

Over 11.5 Corners35.6%

Away Most Corners32.5%

Under 8.5 Corners28.4%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards85.2%

Under 4.5 Cards71.8%

Over 2.5 Cards68.7%

Under 3.5 Cards52.8%

Over 3.5 Cards47.2%

Under 2.5 Cards31.3%

Over 4.5 Cards28.2%

Over 5.5 Cards14.8%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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