Brazil · Serie A

Vitoria vs Cruzeiro

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Vitoria 15.4% Draw 23.8% Cruzeiro 60.8%

Over 2.5 - 55% BTTS - 53%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

84%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

61%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 11.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Cruzeiro: 7 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.1%

Exact-score model probability

Vitoria

D W L W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 4:10 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Cruzeiro

L W L W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 12:9 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vitoria win15.4%

Draw23.8%

Cruzeiro win60.8%

Over 1.5 goals79.5%

Over 2.5 goals54.9%

Over 3.5 goals32.6%

Both teams to score52.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

86.0%

Away Over 0.5

86.0%

Under 4.5 Goals

83.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)83.2%

Home or Away (12)78.8%

Draw No Bet - Away78.7%

Away Win62.0%

Both Halves Over 0.557.7%

Goal in Both Halves57.7%

Home or Draw (1X)38.0%

Draw No Bet - Home21.3%

Draw21.2%

Home Win16.7%

Exactly 1 Goal16.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.4%

Under 5.5 Goals92.8%

Under 4.5 Goals83.5%

Over 1.5 Goals78.2%

Under 3.5 Goals67.5%

1-3 Goals61.8%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals54.9%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.6%

Under 2.5 Goals45.1%

1-2 Goals39.5%

3-4 Goals38.4%

Over 3.5 Goals32.5%

4+ Goals32.5%

Exactly 2 Goals23.3%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Under 1.5 Goals21.8%

Over 4.5 Goals16.5%

Over 5.5 Goals7.2%

Under 0.5 Goals5.6%

Exactly 0 Goals5.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score86.0%

Home Team to Score59.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.6%

Away Clean Sheet40.2%

Away Win to Nil34.6%

Home Clean Sheet14.0%

Home Win to Nil8.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.586.0%

Home Over 0.559.8%

Away Over 1.558.5%

Home Exactly 040.2%

Home Exactly 136.6%

Away Over 2.531.4%

Away 3+ Goals31.4%

Away Exactly 127.5%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Over 1.523.1%

Home Exactly 216.7%

Away Exactly 014.0%

Home Over 2.56.5%

Home 3+ Goals6.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)83.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away83.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)81.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home81.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)62.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home62.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)62.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)38.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home38.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)37.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away37.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.4%

Away to win by 124.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.0%

Away to win by 219.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away18.6%

Away to win by 3+18.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.3%

Home to win by 111.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away7.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.1%

Home to win by 24.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.4%

Home to win by 3+1.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.541.3%

Away & Over 2.540.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.0%

Away & No BTTS34.6%

Away & BTTS27.4%

Away & Under 2.521.9%

Draw & Under 2.515.7%

Draw & BTTS15.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.5%

BTTS & Under 2.510.1%

Home & Over 2.59.3%

Home & BTTS8.4%

Home & No BTTS8.4%

Home & Under 2.57.5%

Draw & Over 2.55.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.6%

HT Under 1.562.8%

HT Away Win45.4%

2nd Half More Goals44.1%

HT/FT Away/Away40.0%

HT Draw38.3%

HT Over 1.537.2%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT Under 0.527.4%

Equal Goals Each Half24.6%

HT Both Teams Score19.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away19.0%

HT Home Win16.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.7%

HT/FT Home/Home9.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.1%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners72.8%

Over 8.5 Corners63.5%

Under 10.5 Corners61.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners58.5%

Away Most Corners50.8%

Over 9.5 Corners50.7%

Under 9.5 Corners49.3%

Home Over 4.5 Corners48.2%

Over 10.5 Corners38.3%

Under 8.5 Corners36.5%

Home Most Corners36.4%

Over 11.5 Corners27.2%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards81.2%

Under 5.5 Cards72.4%

Over 3.5 Cards63.6%

Under 4.5 Cards55.6%

Over 4.5 Cards44.4%

Under 3.5 Cards36.4%

Over 5.5 Cards27.6%

Under 2.5 Cards18.8%

Over 0.5 Red Cards17.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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