Brazil · Serie A

Vitoria vs Gremio

Kick-off 00:00 · Tue, Sep 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

36% confidence

Vitoria 36.2% Draw 34.1% Gremio 29.7%

Over 2.5 - 33% BTTS - 42%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 70.3% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 29.7% on the only losing outcome.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Gremio: 4 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

70.3%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

29.7%

Only the uncovered result loses

Vitoria

L W L L L D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 1:10 Scored/game 0.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Gremio

W L L W D L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vitoria win36.2%

Draw34.1%

Gremio win29.7%

Over 1.5 goals61.7%

Over 2.5 goals32.9%

Over 3.5 goals14.7%

Both teams to score42.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

88.7%

Over 0.5 Goals

86.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)69.4%

Home or Draw (1X)68.5%

Draw or Away (X2)62.1%

Draw No Bet - Home54.7%

Draw No Bet - Away45.3%

Both Halves Over 0.540.0%

Goal in Both Halves40.0%

Home Win37.9%

Away Win31.5%

Draw30.6%

Exactly 1 Goal26.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.3%

Under 4.5 Goals94.6%

Over 0.5 Goals86.7%

Under 3.5 Goals85.3%

1-3 Goals72.1%

Under 2.5 Goals67.1%

Over 1.5 Goals59.9%

2-4 Goals54.5%

1-2 Goals53.9%

Total Goals Even50.9%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

2-3 Goals45.3%

Under 1.5 Goals40.1%

Over 2.5 Goals32.9%

3-4 Goals27.4%

Exactly 2 Goals27.1%

Exactly 3 Goals18.2%

Over 3.5 Goals14.7%

4+ Goals14.7%

Under 0.5 Goals13.3%

Exactly 0 Goals13.3%

Over 4.5 Goals5.4%

Over 5.5 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score65.8%

Away Team to Score61.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)59.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)40.3%

Home Clean Sheet38.8%

Away Clean Sheet34.2%

Home Win to Nil25.5%

Away Win to Nil21.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.565.8%

Away Over 0.561.2%

Away Exactly 038.8%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 034.2%

Home Over 1.529.1%

Away Over 1.524.5%

Home Exactly 219.7%

Away Exactly 217.4%

Home Over 2.59.4%

Home 3+ Goals9.4%

Away Over 2.57.1%

Away 3+ Goals7.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)68.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home68.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)62.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away62.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)37.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)31.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.8%

Home to win by 122.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.1%

Away to win by 120.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home15.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.6%

Home to win by 210.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.3%

Away to win by 28.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.6%

Home to win by 3+4.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.1%

Away to win by 3+3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.553.6%

BTTS & Over 2.526.8%

Draw & Under 2.526.7%

Home & No BTTS25.5%

Home & Under 2.521.8%

Away & No BTTS21.0%

Away & Under 2.518.5%

Draw & BTTS17.3%

Home & Over 2.516.1%

BTTS & Under 2.513.5%

Away & Over 2.512.9%

Home & BTTS12.5%

Away & BTTS10.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.1%

Draw & Over 2.53.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.576.9%

HT Over 0.559.7%

HT Draw49.0%

HT Under 0.540.3%

2nd Half More Goals40.0%

Equal Goals Each Half30.4%

1st Half More Goals29.5%

HT Home Win27.4%

HT Away Win23.6%

HT Over 1.523.1%

HT/FT Home/Home21.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw21.5%

HT/FT Away/Away17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.9%

HT Both Teams Score13.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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