Brazil · Serie A

Vitoria vs Palmeiras

● LIVE 79' · 0:3

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Vitoria 44.1% Draw 27.1% Palmeiras 28.8%

Over 2.5 - 57% BTTS - 60%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 76%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Palmeiras: 7 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.2%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

76%

Market agrees with this pick

Vitoria

L D W L W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 4:7 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Palmeiras

L W W D D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

🏥 Vitoria unavailable

Camutanga · Broken Leg

Riccieli · Calf Injury

Edu · Achilles Tendon Injury

R. Ramos · Knee Injury

🏥 Palmeiras unavailable

Paulinho · Ankle Injury

Bruno Fuchs · Surgery

Jefte · Knee Injury

📈 Probability Breakdown

Vitoria win44.1%

Draw27.1%

Palmeiras win28.8%

Over 1.5 goals80.8%

Over 2.5 goals56.5%

Over 3.5 goals34.1%

Both teams to score60.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.9%

Home or Draw (1X)69.7%

Draw No Bet - Home60.1%

Both Halves Over 0.558.9%

Goal in Both Halves58.9%

Draw or Away (X2)54.4%

Home Win45.6%

Draw No Bet - Away39.9%

Away Win30.3%

Draw24.1%

Exactly 1 Goal15.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.7%

Under 5.5 Goals92.1%

Under 4.5 Goals82.4%

Over 1.5 Goals79.3%

Under 3.5 Goals65.9%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals60.6%

Over 2.5 Goals56.5%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals45.2%

Under 2.5 Goals43.5%

3-4 Goals38.9%

1-2 Goals38.2%

Over 3.5 Goals34.1%

4+ Goals34.1%

Exactly 2 Goals22.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.7%

Over 4.5 Goals17.6%

Over 5.5 Goals7.9%

Under 0.5 Goals5.3%

Exactly 0 Goals5.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score80.8%

Away Team to Score72.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.3%

Home Clean Sheet27.3%

Home Win to Nil22.0%

Away Clean Sheet19.2%

Away Win to Nil14.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.580.8%

Away Over 0.572.7%

Home Over 1.549.0%

Away Over 1.537.3%

Away Exactly 135.4%

Home Exactly 131.7%

Away Exactly 027.3%

Home Exactly 226.1%

Away Exactly 223.0%

Home Over 2.522.9%

Home 3+ Goals22.9%

Home Exactly 019.2%

Away Over 2.514.3%

Away 3+ Goals14.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home69.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)54.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away54.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)45.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.9%

Home to win by 121.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.2%

Away to win by 117.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.8%

Home to win by 213.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.0%

Home to win by 3+10.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.6%

Away to win by 28.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.4%

Away to win by 3+4.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.547.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.532.3%

Home & Over 2.529.8%

Home & BTTS23.6%

Home & No BTTS22.0%

Away & Over 2.519.0%

Draw & BTTS18.9%

Draw & Under 2.516.5%

Away & BTTS16.3%

Home & Under 2.515.8%

Away & No BTTS14.0%

Away & Under 2.511.2%

BTTS & Under 2.511.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.0%

Draw & Over 2.57.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.5%

HT Under 1.561.7%

2nd Half More Goals44.4%

HT Draw39.4%

HT Over 1.538.3%

HT Home Win35.1%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT/FT Home/Home27.8%

HT Under 0.526.5%

HT Away Win25.5%

Equal Goals Each Half24.3%

HT Both Teams Score23.2%

HT/FT Away/Away17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Palmeiras

Paulinho Ankle Injury

Bruno Fuchs Surgery

Jefte Knee Injury

Vitoria

Camutanga Broken Leg

Riccieli Calf Injury

Edu Achilles Tendon Injury

R. Ramos Knee Injury

Dudu Back Injury

Nathan Mendes Knee Injury

Anderson Knee Injury

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Vitoria win10%

Draw45%

Palmeiras win45%

AdviceCombo Double chance : draw or Palmeiras and -3.5 goals

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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