England · Championship

Watford vs Burnley

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

Watford 69.0% Draw 15.4% Burnley 15.6%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Watford: 4 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Watford

L L W L L D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 4:8 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Burnley

D L D L D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 6:12 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 2

Watford 0wins ·1 draws ·Burnley 1wins

Watford 1-2 BurnleyApr 30, 2022

Watford 0-0 BurnleyFeb 5, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Watford win69.0%

Draw15.4%

Burnley win15.6%

Over 1.5 goals96.3%

Over 2.5 goals87.2%

Over 3.5 goals73.0%

Both teams to score78.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.1%

Home Team to Score

90.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.4%

Home or Draw (1X)77.1%

Draw No Bet - Home71.6%

Both Halves Over 0.571.3%

Goal in Both Halves71.3%

Home Win57.6%

Draw or Away (X2)42.3%

Draw No Bet - Away28.4%

Away Win22.8%

Draw19.5%

Exactly 1 Goal8.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals88.8%

Under 5.5 Goals82.2%

Over 2.5 Goals72.4%

Under 4.5 Goals67.6%

2-4 Goals56.5%

Over 3.5 Goals51.8%

4+ Goals51.8%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals48.2%

1-3 Goals45.8%

3-4 Goals40.0%

2-3 Goals37.1%

Over 4.5 Goals32.4%

Under 2.5 Goals27.6%

1-2 Goals25.2%

Exactly 3 Goals20.6%

Over 5.5 Goals17.8%

Exactly 2 Goals16.5%

Under 1.5 Goals11.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.2%

Away Team to Score76.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.4%

Home Clean Sheet23.9%

Home Win to Nil21.6%

Away Clean Sheet9.7%

Away Win to Nil7.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.2%

Away Over 0.576.0%

Home Over 1.567.6%

Away Over 1.541.8%

Home Over 2.541.1%

Home 3+ Goals41.1%

Away Exactly 134.2%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Away Exactly 224.4%

Away Exactly 023.9%

Home Exactly 122.7%

Away Over 2.517.3%

Away 3+ Goals17.3%

Home Exactly 09.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)63.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away63.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)57.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)42.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away42.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)36.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home36.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)22.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.1%

Home to win by 121.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.4%

Home to win by 3+19.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.0%

Home to win by 217.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.0%

Away to win by 113.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.4%

Away to win by 26.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.5%

Away to win by 3+3.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.560.8%

Home & Over 2.545.8%

Home & BTTS36.0%

Home & No BTTS21.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.8%

Draw & BTTS17.2%

Away & Over 2.517.1%

Away & BTTS15.4%

Home & Under 2.511.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.5%

Draw & Under 2.510.1%

Draw & Over 2.59.4%

BTTS & Under 2.57.8%

Away & No BTTS7.4%

Away & Under 2.55.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.6%

HT Over 1.550.4%

HT Under 1.549.6%

2nd Half More Goals46.9%

HT Home Win44.7%

HT/FT Home/Home37.7%

HT Draw33.1%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score30.8%

HT Away Win22.2%

Equal Goals Each Half21.1%

HT Under 0.518.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.9%

HT/FT Away/Away13.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions