England · Championship

West Brom vs Watford

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

86% confidence

West Brom 85.7% Draw 8.7% Watford 5.6%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

91%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

86%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to West Brom: 10 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

West Brom

D L L W W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 13:10 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Watford

L D L D W W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

West Brom win85.7%

Draw8.7%

Watford win5.6%

Over 1.5 goals97.5%

Over 2.5 goals90.7%

Over 3.5 goals78.8%

Both teams to score70.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.4%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home93.6%

Home or Draw (1X)91.4%

Home or Away (12)89.2%

Both Halves Over 0.586.9%

Goal in Both Halves86.9%

Home Win83.5%

Draw or Away (X2)13.6%

Draw7.9%

Draw No Bet - Away6.4%

Away Win5.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.4%

Over 2.5 Goals88.0%

Over 3.5 Goals76.5%

4+ Goals76.5%

Over 4.5 Goals60.8%

Under 5.5 Goals56.4%

Total Goals Even48.6%

Total Goals Odd48.5%

Over 5.5 Goals43.6%

Under 4.5 Goals39.2%

2-4 Goals33.6%

3-4 Goals27.2%

Under 3.5 Goals23.5%

1-3 Goals20.1%

2-3 Goals17.8%

Under 2.5 Goals12.0%

Exactly 3 Goals11.5%

1-2 Goals8.6%

Exactly 2 Goals6.3%

Under 1.5 Goals5.6%

Under 0.5 Goals3.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.6%

Away Team to Score68.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.2%

Home Clean Sheet28.3%

Home Win to Nil27.8%

Away Clean Sheet1.5%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.6%

Home Over 1.589.5%

Home Over 2.576.5%

Home 3+ Goals76.5%

Away Over 0.568.8%

Away Exactly 134.9%

Away Over 1.533.9%

Away Exactly 028.3%

Away Exactly 221.5%

Home Exactly 213.0%

Away Over 2.512.4%

Away 3+ Goals12.4%

Home Exactly 16.1%

Home Exactly 01.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)85.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)83.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)75.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away75.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)70.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home70.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)60.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away60.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)54.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home54.1%

Home to win by 3+54.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)43.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away43.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)36.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home36.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)26.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away26.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)22.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home22.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.6%

Home to win by 216.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away13.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.9%

Home to win by 112.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home11.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.7%

Away to win by 13.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.4%

Away to win by 21.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.577.9%

BTTS & Over 2.565.6%

Home & BTTS55.7%

Home & No BTTS27.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.522.5%

Draw & BTTS7.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.8%

Home & Under 2.55.6%

Draw & Over 2.55.2%

Away & Over 2.54.9%

Away & BTTS4.7%

Draw & Under 2.52.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.2%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.4%

HT Over 1.570.4%

HT Home Win69.8%

HT/FT Home/Home66.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT Both Teams Score36.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.6%

HT Draw20.3%

Equal Goals Each Half17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.1%

HT Away Win9.9%

HT Under 0.58.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Away/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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