England · Championship

West Ham vs Derby

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

82% confidence

West Ham 82.2% Draw 9.7% Derby 8.1%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to West Ham: 11 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.2%

Exact-score model probability

West Ham

W D W L D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 15:9 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Derby

W L D L L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 7:11 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

West Ham win82.2%

Draw9.7%

Derby win8.1%

Over 1.5 goals98.4%

Over 2.5 goals93.4%

Over 3.5 goals84.1%

Both teams to score78.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

90.8%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.2%

Home Over 1.5

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home90.8%

Both Halves Over 0.589.7%

Goal in Both Halves89.7%

Home or Draw (1X)88.5%

Home or Away (12)87.6%

Home Win79.6%

Draw or Away (X2)16.9%

Draw No Bet - Away9.2%

Draw8.9%

Away Win8.0%

Exactly 1 Goal1.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.2%

Over 1.5 Goals94.7%

Over 2.5 Goals90.2%

Over 3.5 Goals81.1%

4+ Goals81.1%

Over 4.5 Goals67.6%

Over 5.5 Goals51.5%

Under 5.5 Goals48.5%

Total Goals Even48.3%

Total Goals Odd48.2%

Under 4.5 Goals32.4%

2-4 Goals27.1%

3-4 Goals22.6%

Under 3.5 Goals18.9%

1-3 Goals15.1%

2-3 Goals13.6%

Under 2.5 Goals9.8%

Exactly 3 Goals9.0%

1-2 Goals6.1%

Under 1.5 Goals5.3%

Exactly 2 Goals4.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score76.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.2%

Home Clean Sheet19.7%

Home Win to Nil19.5%

Away Clean Sheet1.2%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Home Over 2.577.8%

Home 3+ Goals77.8%

Away Over 0.576.7%

Away Over 1.545.4%

Away Exactly 131.3%

Away Exactly 224.9%

Away Over 2.520.6%

Away 3+ Goals20.6%

Away Exactly 019.7%

Home Exactly 212.0%

Home Exactly 15.5%

Home Exactly 01.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)86.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)79.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)76.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away76.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)66.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home66.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away62.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)50.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home50.1%

Home to win by 3+50.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)46.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away46.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)33.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home33.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)30.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away30.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)19.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home19.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.3%

Home to win by 113.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home9.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.8%

Away to win by 14.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 22.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.576.0%

BTTS & Over 2.574.0%

Home & BTTS60.1%

Home & No BTTS19.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.2%

Draw & BTTS8.6%

Away & Over 2.57.3%

Away & BTTS7.0%

Draw & Over 2.56.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.5%

Home & Under 2.53.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.0%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.2%

HT Over 1.574.9%

HT Home Win67.0%

HT/FT Home/Home63.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.2%

HT Both Teams Score43.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.525.1%

HT Draw20.4%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.5%

HT Away Win12.6%

HT Under 0.56.8%

HT/FT Away/Home5.3%

HT/FT Away/Away4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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