England · Championship

West Ham vs Southampton

Full time · 2:3

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

86% confidence

West Ham 85.6% Draw 9.1% Southampton 5.3%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 66%

✓ Pick was correct (2:3)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

86%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to West Ham: 14 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.2%

Exact-score model probability

West Ham

W W D D W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 19:5 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Southampton

D W W L W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:4 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

West Ham 3wins ·2 draws ·Southampton 0wins

West Ham 4-1 SouthamptonAug 25, 2026

West Ham 1-1 SouthamptonApr 19, 2025

West Ham 1-0 SouthamptonDec 26, 2024

West Ham 1-0 SouthamptonApr 2, 2023

West Ham 1-1 SouthamptonOct 16, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

West Ham win85.6%

Draw9.1%

Southampton win5.3%

Over 1.5 goals96.5%

Over 2.5 goals88.0%

Over 3.5 goals74.1%

Both teams to score65.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.9%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.3%

Draw No Bet - Home89.5%

Home or Away (12)87.1%

Home Win78.0%

Both Halves Over 0.576.9%

Goal in Both Halves76.9%

Draw or Away (X2)21.5%

Draw12.4%

Draw No Bet - Away10.5%

Away Win9.1%

Exactly 1 Goal6.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals91.9%

Over 2.5 Goals78.9%

Under 5.5 Goals75.3%

Over 3.5 Goals60.6%

4+ Goals60.6%

Under 4.5 Goals58.8%

2-4 Goals50.7%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 4.5 Goals41.2%

Under 3.5 Goals39.4%

3-4 Goals37.7%

1-3 Goals37.4%

2-3 Goals31.3%

Over 5.5 Goals24.7%

Under 2.5 Goals21.1%

1-2 Goals19.1%

Exactly 3 Goals18.3%

Exactly 2 Goals13.0%

Under 1.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.3%

Away Team to Score65.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.6%

Home Clean Sheet34.3%

Home Win to Nil32.9%

Away Clean Sheet4.2%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.3%

Home Over 1.582.0%

Away Over 0.565.1%

Home Over 2.560.9%

Home 3+ Goals60.9%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Away Exactly 034.3%

Away Over 1.528.6%

Home Exactly 221.1%

Away Exactly 219.4%

Home Exactly 113.3%

Away Over 2.59.2%

Away 3+ Goals9.2%

Home Exactly 04.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)59.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home59.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)59.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away59.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)40.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home40.0%

Home to win by 3+40.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)39.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away39.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)23.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home23.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.8%

Home to win by 219.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 118.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.1%

Away to win by 16.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 22.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.566.1%

BTTS & Over 2.557.5%

Home & BTTS45.1%

Home & No BTTS32.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.7%

Home & Under 2.511.9%

Draw & BTTS10.9%

Away & Over 2.56.8%

Away & BTTS6.4%

Draw & Under 2.56.3%

Draw & Over 2.56.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.9%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.1%

HT Home Win60.8%

HT Over 1.556.8%

HT/FT Home/Home56.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Under 1.543.2%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score28.9%

HT Draw26.9%

Equal Goals Each Half19.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.6%

HT Under 0.514.9%

HT Away Win12.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.1%

HT/FT Away/Away5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions