Netherlands · Eredivisie

Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen

Kick-off 15:30 · Sat, Aug 15

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Willem II 21.1% Draw 24.7% NEC Nijmegen 54.1%

Over 2.5 - 73% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 5.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to NEC Nijmegen: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.4%

Exact-score model probability

Willem II

L W L D W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:13 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.17

NEC Nijmegen

W L D W L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 4

Willem II 1wins ·2 draws ·NEC Nijmegen 1wins

Willem II 1-1 NEC NijmegenMay 3, 2025

Willem II 4-1 NEC NijmegenDec 22, 2024

Willem II 0-1 NEC NijmegenDec 22, 2021

Willem II 0-0 NEC NijmegenSep 12, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Willem II win21.1%

Draw24.7%

NEC Nijmegen win54.1%

Over 1.5 goals81.8%

Over 2.5 goals72.6%

Over 3.5 goals36.0%

Both teams to score69.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

88.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.9%

Draw or Away (X2)70.3%

Both Halves Over 0.562.4%

Goal in Both Halves62.4%

Draw No Bet - Away61.4%

Home or Draw (1X)52.7%

Away Win47.2%

Draw No Bet - Home38.6%

Home Win29.6%

Draw23.1%

Exactly 1 Goal13.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Under 5.5 Goals90.0%

Over 1.5 Goals82.2%

Under 4.5 Goals78.9%

Under 3.5 Goals61.3%

2-4 Goals61.2%

Over 2.5 Goals61.0%

1-3 Goals57.0%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.6%

3-4 Goals39.9%

Under 2.5 Goals39.0%

Over 3.5 Goals38.7%

4+ Goals38.7%

1-2 Goals34.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Exactly 2 Goals21.2%

Over 4.5 Goals21.1%

Under 1.5 Goals17.8%

Over 5.5 Goals10.0%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals4.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score83.2%

Home Team to Score74.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.0%

Away Clean Sheet25.4%

Away Win to Nil21.1%

Home Clean Sheet16.8%

Home Win to Nil12.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.583.2%

Home Over 0.574.6%

Away Over 1.553.2%

Home Over 1.539.8%

Home Exactly 134.8%

Away Exactly 130.0%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Away Over 2.526.4%

Away 3+ Goals26.4%

Home Exactly 025.4%

Home Exactly 223.8%

Away Exactly 016.8%

Home Over 2.515.9%

Home 3+ Goals15.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)74.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home74.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)70.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away70.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)52.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home52.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)47.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)29.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)25.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away25.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.6%

Away to win by 121.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.6%

Home to win by 116.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.3%

Away to win by 214.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.4%

Away to win by 3+11.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.5%

Home to win by 28.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.6%

Home to win by 3+4.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.551.6%

Away & Over 2.532.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.528.6%

Away & BTTS26.1%

Away & No BTTS21.1%

Home & Over 2.519.8%

Draw & BTTS18.8%

Home & BTTS17.1%

Draw & Under 2.514.7%

Away & Under 2.514.4%

Home & No BTTS12.6%

BTTS & Under 2.510.4%

Home & Under 2.59.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.4%

Draw & Over 2.58.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.8%

HT Under 1.558.5%

2nd Half More Goals45.1%

HT Over 1.541.5%

HT Draw37.7%

HT Away Win36.7%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT/FT Away/Away29.2%

HT Home Win25.6%

HT Both Teams Score25.4%

HT Under 0.524.2%

Equal Goals Each Half23.3%

HT/FT Home/Home17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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