England · Championship

Wolves vs Bolton

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Oct 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

90% confidence

Wolves 89.6% Draw 6.8% Bolton 3.6%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

91%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 96.4% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 3.6% on the only losing outcome.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Wolves: 13 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

96.4%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

3.6%

Only the uncovered result loses

Wolves

W W D L W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

Bolton

L W W L L L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 10:15 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Wolves win89.6%

Draw6.8%

Bolton win3.6%

Over 1.5 goals97.6%

Over 2.5 goals91.2%

Over 3.5 goals79.8%

Both teams to score65.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.8%

Home or Away (12)

89.9%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home95.9%

Home or Draw (1X)92.2%

Home or Away (12)89.9%

Both Halves Over 0.587.5%

Goal in Both Halves87.5%

Home Win86.2%

Draw or Away (X2)9.8%

Draw6.0%

Draw No Bet - Away4.1%

Away Win3.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.5%

Over 2.5 Goals87.5%

Over 3.5 Goals76.6%

4+ Goals76.6%

Over 4.5 Goals61.3%

Under 5.5 Goals55.8%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals44.2%

Under 4.5 Goals38.7%

2-4 Goals32.2%

3-4 Goals26.3%

Under 3.5 Goals23.4%

1-3 Goals19.0%

2-3 Goals16.9%

Under 2.5 Goals12.5%

Exactly 3 Goals11.0%

1-2 Goals8.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.5%

Exactly 2 Goals5.9%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score63.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.7%

Home Clean Sheet33.0%

Home Win to Nil32.6%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.563.0%

Away Exactly 135.2%

Away Exactly 033.0%

Away Over 1.527.8%

Away Exactly 218.8%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 2.58.9%

Away 3+ Goals8.9%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)86.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)81.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)75.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home75.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)69.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away69.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)60.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home60.1%

Home to win by 3+60.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)53.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away53.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)42.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home42.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)35.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away35.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)27.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home27.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)20.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away20.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.2%

Home to win by 215.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)14.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home14.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.9%

Home to win by 110.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away9.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.6%

Away to win by 12.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.9%

Away to win by 20.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.3%

Away to win by 3+0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.580.6%

BTTS & Over 2.560.4%

Home & BTTS53.6%

Home & No BTTS32.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.527.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.6%

Home & Under 2.55.6%

Draw & BTTS5.6%

Draw & Over 2.53.8%

Away & Over 2.53.1%

Away & BTTS3.0%

Draw & Under 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.7%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.8%

HT Home Win74.0%

HT/FT Home/Home71.8%

HT Over 1.571.4%

2nd Half More Goals50.6%

HT Both Teams Score33.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.528.6%

HT Draw18.3%

Equal Goals Each Half16.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Under 0.58.2%

HT Away Win7.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Away/Away2.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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