England · Championship

Wrexham vs Birmingham

Kick-off 20:00 · Fri, Aug 28

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

35% confidence

Wrexham 34.6% Draw 33.8% Birmingham 31.6%

Over 2.5 - 34% BTTS - 43%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 13.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Birmingham: 3 points versus 6 across the last 4 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.5%

Exact-score model probability

Wrexham

D D L D

Form 0-3-1 Goals 4:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.25

Birmingham

L D D W D

Form 1-3-1 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.8

📈 Probability Breakdown

Wrexham win34.6%

Draw33.8%

Birmingham win31.6%

Over 1.5 goals62.7%

Over 2.5 goals33.9%

Over 3.5 goals15.3%

Both teams to score43.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

87.5%

Over 0.5 Goals

87.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)69.7%

Home or Draw (1X)66.7%

Draw or Away (X2)63.7%

Draw No Bet - Home52.2%

Draw No Bet - Away47.8%

Both Halves Over 0.540.9%

Goal in Both Halves40.9%

Home Win36.3%

Away Win33.3%

Draw30.3%

Exactly 1 Goal26.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.1%

Under 4.5 Goals94.2%

Over 0.5 Goals87.2%

Under 3.5 Goals84.7%

1-3 Goals71.9%

Under 2.5 Goals66.1%

Over 1.5 Goals60.9%

2-4 Goals55.1%

1-2 Goals53.3%

Total Goals Even50.8%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

2-3 Goals45.6%

Under 1.5 Goals39.1%

Over 2.5 Goals33.9%

3-4 Goals28.1%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

Exactly 3 Goals18.6%

Over 3.5 Goals15.3%

4+ Goals15.3%

Under 0.5 Goals12.8%

Exactly 0 Goals12.8%

Over 4.5 Goals5.8%

Over 5.5 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score65.3%

Away Team to Score63.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)58.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)41.3%

Home Clean Sheet36.8%

Away Clean Sheet34.7%

Home Win to Nil24.0%

Away Win to Nil21.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.565.3%

Away Over 0.563.2%

Away Exactly 036.8%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 034.7%

Home Over 1.528.6%

Away Over 1.526.4%

Home Exactly 219.4%

Away Exactly 218.4%

Home Over 2.59.1%

Home 3+ Goals9.1%

Away Over 2.58.0%

Away 3+ Goals8.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)66.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home66.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)63.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away63.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)36.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)33.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.0%

Home to win by 122.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.8%

Away to win by 120.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.0%

Home to win by 210.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.0%

Away to win by 29.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.3%

Home to win by 3+4.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.6%

Away to win by 3+3.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.552.6%

BTTS & Over 2.527.8%

Draw & Under 2.526.3%

Home & No BTTS24.0%

Away & No BTTS21.9%

Home & Under 2.520.7%

Away & Under 2.519.2%

Draw & BTTS17.5%

Home & Over 2.515.7%

Away & Over 2.514.2%

BTTS & Under 2.513.5%

Home & BTTS12.3%

Away & BTTS11.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.1%

Draw & Over 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.576.3%

HT Over 0.560.4%

HT Draw48.6%

2nd Half More Goals40.3%

HT Under 0.539.6%

Equal Goals Each Half30.1%

1st Half More Goals29.6%

HT Home Win26.6%

HT Away Win24.8%

HT Over 1.523.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw21.1%

HT/FT Home/Home20.6%

HT/FT Away/Away18.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.2%

HT Both Teams Score13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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