England · Championship

Wrexham vs Burnley

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Sep 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

80% confidence

Wrexham 80.4% Draw 11.8% Burnley 7.8%

Over 2.5 - 85% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

85%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Wrexham: 6 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Wrexham

D W L D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.83

Burnley

L D L L D D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 7:13 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Wrexham win80.4%

Draw11.8%

Burnley win7.8%

Over 1.5 goals95.5%

Over 2.5 goals85.3%

Over 3.5 goals69.8%

Both teams to score68.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.6%

Draw No Bet - Home

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.6%

Draw No Bet - Home90.6%

Home or Away (12)88.2%

Both Halves Over 0.581.9%

Goal in Both Halves81.9%

Home Win79.9%

Draw or Away (X2)18.9%

Draw10.7%

Draw No Bet - Away9.4%

Away Win8.2%

Exactly 1 Goal4.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals94.0%

Over 2.5 Goals84.3%

Over 3.5 Goals69.0%

4+ Goals69.0%

Under 5.5 Goals66.7%

Over 4.5 Goals50.7%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Under 4.5 Goals49.3%

2-4 Goals43.3%

3-4 Goals33.6%

Over 5.5 Goals33.3%

Under 3.5 Goals31.0%

1-3 Goals29.0%

2-3 Goals25.0%

Under 2.5 Goals15.7%

Exactly 3 Goals15.3%

1-2 Goals13.7%

Exactly 2 Goals9.6%

Under 1.5 Goals6.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score68.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.1%

Home Clean Sheet30.1%

Home Win to Nil29.2%

Away Clean Sheet2.8%

Away Win to Nil1.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.1%

Away Over 0.568.8%

Home Over 2.568.3%

Home 3+ Goals68.3%

Away Exactly 135.8%

Away Over 1.533.0%

Away Exactly 030.1%

Away Exactly 221.3%

Home Exactly 217.9%

Away Over 2.511.7%

Away 3+ Goals11.7%

Home Exactly 110.0%

Home Exactly 02.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)92.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)83.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away83.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)79.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)70.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away70.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)63.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home63.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)53.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away53.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)45.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home45.1%

Home to win by 3+45.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)35.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away35.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)28.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home28.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away18.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.1%

Home to win by 116.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 15.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 22.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.571.5%

BTTS & Over 2.563.2%

Home & BTTS50.7%

Home & No BTTS29.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.9%

Draw & BTTS9.9%

Home & Under 2.58.5%

Away & Over 2.56.6%

Away & BTTS6.3%

Draw & Over 2.56.2%

Draw & Under 2.54.5%

BTTS & Under 2.53.6%

Away & No BTTS1.9%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.3%

HT Home Win63.8%

HT Over 1.563.2%

HT/FT Home/Home60.0%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT Under 1.536.8%

HT Both Teams Score33.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw24.2%

Equal Goals Each Half18.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.5%

HT Away Win12.0%

HT Under 0.511.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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