Russia · Premier League

Zenit vs Akhmat

Kick-off 12:00 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

73% confidence

Zenit 73.1% Draw 20.2% Akhmat 6.7%

Over 2.5 - 47% BTTS - 35%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

89%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 16.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Zenit: 15 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

16.5%

Exact-score model probability

Zenit

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 15:3 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 0.5

Akhmat

L D L D D D

Form 0-4-2 Goals 4:6 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Zenit win73.1%

Draw20.2%

Akhmat win6.7%

Over 1.5 goals73.2%

Over 2.5 goals46.8%

Over 3.5 goals25.2%

Both teams to score35.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

90.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

88.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

88.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)92.2%

Draw No Bet - Home90.5%

Home or Away (12)81.9%

Home Win74.1%

Both Halves Over 0.551.4%

Goal in Both Halves51.4%

Draw or Away (X2)25.9%

Exactly 1 Goal20.0%

Draw18.1%

Draw No Bet - Away9.5%

Away Win7.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.5%

Over 0.5 Goals92.1%

Under 4.5 Goals88.5%

Under 3.5 Goals74.8%

Over 1.5 Goals72.2%

1-3 Goals66.9%

2-4 Goals60.7%

Under 2.5 Goals53.3%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals46.7%

1-2 Goals45.4%

3-4 Goals35.3%

Under 1.5 Goals27.8%

Exactly 2 Goals25.4%

Over 3.5 Goals25.2%

4+ Goals25.2%

Exactly 3 Goals21.6%

Over 4.5 Goals11.5%

Under 0.5 Goals7.9%

Exactly 0 Goals7.8%

Over 5.5 Goals4.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)65.9%

Home Clean Sheet60.9%

Home Win to Nil53.0%

Away Team to Score39.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)34.1%

Away Clean Sheet12.9%

Away Win to Nil5.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.1%

Away Exactly 060.9%

Home Over 1.560.7%

Away Over 0.539.1%

Home Over 2.533.6%

Home 3+ Goals33.6%

Away Exactly 130.2%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 126.4%

Home Exactly 012.9%

Away Over 1.58.9%

Away Exactly 27.5%

Away Over 2.51.4%

Away 3+ Goals1.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)74.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away74.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)51.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away51.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)48.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home48.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.8%

Home to win by 125.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)25.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home25.5%

Home to win by 3+25.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw22.8%

Home to win by 222.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 16.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.3%

Away to win by 21.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS53.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.545.3%

Home & Over 2.541.5%

Home & Under 2.532.6%

BTTS & Over 2.526.1%

Home & BTTS21.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.7%

Draw & Under 2.515.8%

Draw & BTTS10.2%

BTTS & Under 2.58.0%

Away & No BTTS5.0%

Away & Under 2.54.9%

Away & Over 2.52.9%

Away & BTTS2.8%

Draw & Over 2.52.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.568.2%

HT Under 1.568.2%

HT Home Win52.5%

HT/FT Home/Home49.5%

2nd Half More Goals42.8%

HT Draw38.7%

HT Under 0.531.8%

HT Over 1.531.8%

1st Half More Goals30.8%

Equal Goals Each Half26.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home22.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.7%

HT Both Teams Score12.0%

HT Away Win8.8%

HT/FT Away/Away4.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners70.3%

Home Over 4.5 Corners69.2%

Under 11.5 Corners65.8%

Home Most Corners60.1%

Over 9.5 Corners58.3%

Under 10.5 Corners54.1%

Away Over 4.5 Corners46.8%

Over 10.5 Corners45.9%

Under 9.5 Corners41.7%

Over 11.5 Corners34.2%

Under 8.5 Corners29.7%

Away Most Corners28.3%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards85.8%

Under 4.5 Cards72.5%

Over 2.5 Cards67.9%

Under 3.5 Cards53.7%

Over 3.5 Cards46.3%

Under 2.5 Cards32.1%

Over 4.5 Cards27.5%

Over 5.5 Cards14.2%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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