UEFA Europa Conference League

Zira vs Paide

Kick-off 17:00 · Thu, Jul 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Zira 35.4% Draw 42.2% Paide 22.4%

Over 2.5 - 15% BTTS - 24%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 61%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-0 at 26.6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Paide: 6 points versus 7 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

26.6%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

61%

Market does not fully agree

Zira

L W W

Form 2-0-1 Goals 6:1 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.33

Paide

W W D

Form 2-1-0 Goals 5:1 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.33

Head to head · last 1

Zira 0wins ·0 draws ·Paide 1wins

Zira 0-1 PaideJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Zira win35.4%

Draw42.2%

Paide win22.4%

Over 1.5 goals39.6%

Over 2.5 goals14.8%

Over 3.5 goals4.5%

Both teams to score24.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

88.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

88.3%

HT Under 1.5

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)76.1%

Draw or Away (X2)63.2%

Home or Away (12)60.7%

Draw No Bet - Home60.6%

Draw No Bet - Away39.4%

Draw39.3%

Home Win36.8%

Exactly 1 Goal35.2%

Away Win23.9%

Both Halves Over 0.523.2%

Goal in Both Halves23.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.8%

Under 4.5 Goals98.9%

Under 3.5 Goals95.5%

Under 2.5 Goals85.2%

Over 0.5 Goals73.4%

1-3 Goals68.8%

Under 1.5 Goals61.9%

1-2 Goals58.5%

Total Goals Even53.5%

Total Goals Odd46.5%

Over 1.5 Goals38.1%

2-4 Goals37.0%

2-3 Goals33.6%

Under 0.5 Goals26.6%

Exactly 0 Goals26.6%

Exactly 2 Goals23.3%

Over 2.5 Goals14.8%

3-4 Goals13.7%

Exactly 3 Goals10.3%

Over 3.5 Goals4.5%

4+ Goals4.5%

Over 4.5 Goals1.1%

Over 5.5 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)77.2%

Home Clean Sheet57.3%

Home Team to Score53.6%

Away Clean Sheet46.4%

Away Team to Score42.7%

Home Win to Nil30.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)22.8%

Away Win to Nil19.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Exactly 057.3%

Home Over 0.553.6%

Home Exactly 046.4%

Away Over 0.542.7%

Home Exactly 135.6%

Away Exactly 131.9%

Home Over 1.517.9%

Home Exactly 213.7%

Away Over 1.510.8%

Away Exactly 28.9%

Home Over 2.54.3%

Home 3+ Goals4.3%

Away Over 2.51.9%

Away 3+ Goals1.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)63.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away63.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)36.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.1%

Home to win by 125.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.2%

Away to win by 118.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home11.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.0%

Home to win by 29.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 24.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.7%

Home to win by 3+2.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.0%

Away to win by 3+1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.573.8%

Draw & Under 2.538.0%

Home & No BTTS30.7%

Home & Under 2.528.3%

Away & No BTTS19.8%

Away & Under 2.518.9%

Draw & BTTS12.6%

BTTS & Over 2.511.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.4%

Home & Over 2.58.6%

Home & BTTS6.1%

Away & Over 2.55.0%

Away & BTTS4.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.53.3%

Draw & Over 2.51.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.588.0%

HT Draw60.0%

HT Under 0.555.1%

HT Over 0.544.9%

Equal Goals Each Half39.5%

2nd Half More Goals34.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw32.8%

1st Half More Goals26.2%

HT Home Win23.7%

HT/FT Home/Home19.9%

HT Away Win16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT/FT Away/Away12.4%

HT Over 1.512.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.0%

HT Both Teams Score6.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home0.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.5%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Zira win10%

Draw45%

Paide win45%

AdviceDouble chance : draw or Paide

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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