⚽ Over 1.5 Goals
Today's Over 1.5 Picks
Matches where our Poisson model gives 82% or higher probability of seeing 2 or more goals. Five picks every morning, sorted by confidence.
👑 Best Pick
✅ AI Analysed
Italy · Serie B
19:00
Monza
vs
Catanzaro
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
Probability
99%
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Monza's recent form and home advantage give them an edge. With Patrick Cutrone joining on loan, Monza's attacking threat increases. Catanzaro's poor away form and Monza's high BTTS rate suggest goals. Monza's pi-rating and expected goals also support a strong home performance. 💡...
⚽ Pick #2
✅ AI Analysed
Sudan · Sudani Premier League
14:45
Al-Merreikh II
vs
Al Fallah
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
Probability
92%
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Al-Merreikh II's strong form and Al Fallah's poor recent results create a significant gap. Al-Merreikh II's attacking threat is high with an xG of 3.833. Al Fallah's defensive struggles and failure to score in recent matches make a home win likely. Al-Merreikh II's clean sheet pe...
⚽ Pick #3
✅ AI Analysed
Tunisia · Ligue 2
16:00
ES Hammam-Sousse
vs
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
Probability
88%
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Progres Sakiet Eddaier has a strong record with 2 clean sheets in their last 3 matches. ES Hammam-Sousse has struggled to score with only 1.5 goals per game. Progres has a significant advantage in expected goals with 3 xG. The away team's high scoring rate and strong defense make...
⚽ Pick #4
✅ AI Analysed
Egypt · Premier League
15:00
Masr
vs
Kahraba Ismailia
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
Probability
86%
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Masr has a strong home record with 1.8 goals scored per game. Kahraba Ismailia has struggled to score at home but has been more potent on the road. The pi-ratings suggest Kahraba Ismailia is slightly stronger. With both teams having a high BTTS rate, goals are expected. 💡 Tip: O...
How Over 1.5 Picks Work
1
Poisson distribution modelling: we compute expected goals (xG) for both teams from recent form, attack/defense strength, and head-to-head data.
2
82% probability minimum: only matches where the model gives 82% or higher chance of 2+ goals make the cut. This filters out uncertain fixtures.
3
5 picks published at 08:00 Lagos, sorted by probability, highest first. Track our record on the stats page.
🔞 18+ only.
Over 1.5 Goals picks are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.
High probability does not guarantee any outcome. Please gamble responsibly.