⚽ Over 1.5 Goals
Today's Over 1.5 Picks
Matches where our Poisson model gives 82% or higher probability of seeing 2 or more goals. Five picks every morning, sorted by confidence.
👑 Best Pick
✅ AI Analysed
Brazil · Serie A
FT 3–1
Santos
vs
Vitoria
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
✅ Won
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Santos and Vitoria have a significant form gap, with Vitoria scoring 2 goals per game. Vitoria's attacking threat is high, with an xG of 3.5. Santos' defensive strength is a concern, conceding 1.75 goals per game. The absence of key players like Neymar could impact Santos' perfor...
⚽ Pick #2
✅ AI Analysed
Brazil · Serie A
20:00
Vasco DA Gama
vs
Atletico-MG
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
Probability
97%
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Vasco DA Gama's recent form is concerning with 2 losses in their last 4 matches. Atletico-MG has a strong attacking threat with an xG of 3.938. Atletico-MG's defensive strength is also notable, conceding only 1 goal per game. With no key player injuries reported, Atletico-MG's ad...
⚽ Pick #3
✅ AI Analysed
Brazil · Serie A
20:00
Palmeiras
vs
Chapecoense-sc
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
Probability
91%
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Palmeiras have a significant form gap over Chapecoense-sc, with a higher xG value. Palmeiras' attacking threat, led by their key players, should pose a challenge to Chapecoense-sc's defense. Chapecoense-sc's inability to keep a clean sheet in their last 4 matches is a concern. Th...
⚽ Pick #4
✅ AI Analysed
Brazil · Serie A
15:00
RB Bragantino
vs
Internacional
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
Probability
87%
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
RB Bragantino have a slight edge in form and home advantage. Internacional's attacking threat is significant with a high xG value. RB Bragantino's defensive strength is a concern for Internacional. The absence of key players could impact the match. 💡 Tip: Over 1.5 Goals is the s...
⚽ Pick #5
✅ AI Analysed
Kenya · FKF Premier League
13:00
Kariobangi Sharks
vs
Sofapaka
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
Probability
88%
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Kariobangi Sharks have a significant form gap over Sofapaka, with a strong home record. Sofapaka's attacking threat is limited, while Kariobangi Sharks have a solid defensive strength. The loss of Ally Salum to injury may impact Kariobangi Sharks, but they should still dominate....
How Over 1.5 Picks Work
1
Poisson distribution modelling: we compute expected goals (xG) for both teams from recent form, attack/defense strength, and head-to-head data.
2
82% probability minimum: only matches where the model gives 82% or higher chance of 2+ goals make the cut. This filters out uncertain fixtures.
3
5 picks published at 08:00 Lagos, sorted by probability, highest first. Track our record on the stats page.
🔞 18+ only.
Over 1.5 Goals picks are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.
High probability does not guarantee any outcome. Please gamble responsibly.