⚽ Over 1.5 Goals

Today's Over 1.5 Picks

Matches where our Poisson model gives 82% or higher probability of seeing 2 or more goals. Five picks every morning, sorted by confidence.

📊 Poisson Modelled 🔓 Free Forever

75%

7-Day Over 1.5 Accuracy 12/16 picks landed

👑 Best Pick ✅ AI Analysed

Tanzania · Ligi kuu Bara 14:00

KMC

14:00

Jun 15

Coastal Union

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

Probability

92%

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

92%

Over 2.5

76%

BTTS

72%

AI Analysis

KMC is in poor form, losing 6 of their last 6 matches, while Coastal Union has a better record. Coastal Union's attacking threat is higher, with an xG of 2.489. KMC's defensive strength is a concern, having conceded 2.17 goals per game. The match importance is high, given the lat...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Both Teams to Score is rated at 72% by the model, supported by each side's recent scoring profile.

Form gap

Recent form leans to Coastal Union: 0 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Away Win

BTTS probability

72%

Both teams to score

KMC BTTS

33.3%

Across recent matches

Coastal Union BTTS

50%

Across recent matches

KMC

L L L L L L

Form 0-0-6 Goals 5:13 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.17

Coastal Union

W L W L L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

📊 Poisson model: 92% chance of 2+ goals

How Over 1.5 Picks Work

Poisson distribution modelling: we compute expected goals (xG) for both teams from recent form, attack/defense strength, and head-to-head data.

82% probability minimum: only matches where the model gives 82% or higher chance of 2+ goals make the cut. This filters out uncertain fixtures.

5 picks published at 08:00 Lagos, sorted by probability, highest first. Track our record on the stats page.

🔞 18+ only. Over 1.5 Goals picks are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice. High probability does not guarantee any outcome. Please gamble responsibly.