⚽ Over 1.5 Goals

Today's Over 1.5 Picks

Matches where our Poisson model gives 82% or higher probability of seeing 2 or more goals. Five picks every morning, sorted by confidence.

📊 Poisson Modelled 🔓 Free Forever

77.3%

7-Day Over 1.5 Accuracy 17/22 picks landed

⚽ Pick #2 ✅ AI Analysed

Morocco · Botola Pro 15:00

Yacoub El Mansour

15:00

Jun 18

Hassania Agadir

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

Probability

98%

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

98%

Over 2.5

92%

BTTS

78%

AI Analysis

Yacoub El Mansour have a strong home record, with 1.3 goals scored per game. Hassania Agadir have struggled defensively, conceding 2.5 goals per game. The pi-ratings suggest Yacoub El Mansour are the stronger team. With a high BTTS rate and over 2.5 goals probability, this match...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Both Teams to Score is rated at 77.7% by the model, supported by each side's recent scoring profile.

High scoring

Recent form leans to Yacoub El Mansour: 11 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS probability

77.7%

Both teams to score

Yacoub El Mansour BTTS

83.3%

Across recent matches

Hassania Agadir BTTS

83.3%

Across recent matches

Yacoub El Mansour

L W W D D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Hassania Agadir

L W L D W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 11:15 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2.5

📊 Poisson model: 98% chance of 2+ goals

⚽ Pick #3 ✅ AI Analysed

Tanzania · Ligi kuu Bara 14:00

Pamba Jiji

14:00

Jun 18

Mtibwa Sugar

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

Probability

97%

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

97%

Over 2.5

90%

BTTS

85%

AI Analysis

Pamba Jiji has a slight edge over Mtibwa Sugar due to home advantage. Mtibwa Sugar's poor form and high concession rate make them vulnerable. Pamba Jiji's recent performances show they can capitalize on this. With both teams having a high BTTS rate, goals are expected. 💡 Tip: Ov...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Both Teams to Score is rated at 84.9% by the model, supported by each side's recent scoring profile.

High scoring

Recent form leans to Pamba Jiji: 7 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS probability

84.9%

Both teams to score

Pamba Jiji BTTS

50%

Across recent matches

Mtibwa Sugar BTTS

60%

Across recent matches

Pamba Jiji

L W L D L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

Mtibwa Sugar

D L W L L

Form 1-1-3 Goals 7:14 Scored/game 1.4 Conceded/game 2.8

📊 Poisson model: 97% chance of 2+ goals

⚽ Pick #4 ✅ AI Analysed

Tanzania · Ligi kuu Bara 14:00

JKT Tanzania

14:00

Jun 18

Tanzania Prisons

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

Probability

94%

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

94%

Over 2.5

80%

BTTS

51%

AI Analysis

JKT Tanzania's recent form and home advantage give them an edge. Tanzania Prisons' poor form and high concession rate make them vulnerable. With a significant pi-rating differential, JKT Tanzania are likely to dominate. Their strong home record and Tanzania Prisons' struggles awa...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 1.5 Goals is rated at 93.5% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

Form gap

Recent form leans to JKT Tanzania: 9 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home Win

Over 1.5 Goals probability

93.5%

Chance of 2+ total goals

JKT Tanzania high-scoring games

33.3%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Tanzania Prisons high-scoring games

66.7%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

JKT Tanzania

D D D W L W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Tanzania Prisons

W L W L L L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 5:13 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.17

📊 Poisson model: 94% chance of 2+ goals

⚽ Pick #5 ✅ AI Analysed

Morocco · Botola Pro 15:00

Renaissance Berkane

15:00

Jun 18

Olympique Safi

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

Probability

92%

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

92%

Over 2.5

76%

BTTS

69%

AI Analysis

Renaissance Berkane has a strong home record with 2 goals scored per game, while Olympique Safi concedes 1.3 goals away. The home team's attacking threat is significant, but Olympique Safi's ability to score is also notable. With a high BTTS rate and over 2.5 goals probability, t...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Both Teams to Score is rated at 69.2% by the model, supported by each side's recent scoring profile.

High scoring rates

Recent form leans to Renaissance Berkane: 13 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS probability

69.2%

Both teams to score

Renaissance Berkane BTTS

50%

Across recent matches

Olympique Safi BTTS

83.3%

Across recent matches

Renaissance Berkane

W W W W D L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

Olympique Safi

D W D D L L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

📊 Poisson model: 92% chance of 2+ goals

How Over 1.5 Picks Work

Poisson distribution modelling: we compute expected goals (xG) for both teams from recent form, attack/defense strength, and head-to-head data.

82% probability minimum: only matches where the model gives 82% or higher chance of 2+ goals make the cut. This filters out uncertain fixtures.

5 picks published at 08:00 Lagos, sorted by probability, highest first. Track our record on the stats page.

🔞 18+ only. Over 1.5 Goals picks are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice. High probability does not guarantee any outcome. Please gamble responsibly.