⚽ Over 1.5 Goals
Today's Over 1.5 Picks
Matches where our Poisson model gives 82% or higher probability of seeing 2 or more goals. Five picks every morning, sorted by confidence.
76.5%
7-Day Over 1.5 Accuracy
13/17 picks landed
👑 Best Pick
✅ AI Analysed
Mexico · Liga MX
FT 1–0
Club Tijuana
vs
Leon
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
❌ Lost
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Club Tijuana has a strong home record with 3 goals scored per game. Mourad El Ghezouani is the key player for Club Tijuana. Leon has struggled defensively, conceding 3 goals per game. With both teams scoring frequently, this match is likely to have multiple goals. 💡 Tip: Over 2....
⚽ Pick #2
✅ AI Analysed
Mexico · Liga MX
FT 1–1
Atlante FC
vs
Club America
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
✅ Won
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Atlante FC and Club America have a significant form gap, with Club America having a stronger attack. Henry Martín and Raphael Veiga are key players for Club America. Atlante FC's defense may struggle against Club America's offense. Club America's away pi-rating is higher. 💡 Tip:...
⚽ Pick #3
✅ AI Analysed
Brazil · Serie A
FT 2–2
Santos
vs
Chapecoense-sc
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
✅ Won
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Santos has a significant form gap over Chapecoense-sc, with a strong home record. Santos' attacking threat, potentially led by key players, should challenge Chapecoense-sc's defensive strength. Chapecoense-sc's poor form may lead to a high-scoring match. The pi-ratings differenti...
⚽ Pick #4
✅ AI Analysed
Russia · Premier League
FT 0–0
Dynamo
vs
Krylia Sovetov
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
❌ Lost
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Dynamo and Krylia Sovetov have shown strong attacking form recently. Krylia Sovetov's away form is a concern but their overall performance suggests they can score. With both teams scoring in most of their recent matches, this game is likely to see goals. The pi-ratings suggest a...
⚽ Pick #5
✅ AI Analysed
South-Korea · K League 1
FT 3–2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
vs
Daejeon Citizen
Our prediction
⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES
✅ Won
Goals probability breakdown
AI Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC is in poor form, losing 4 of their last 6 matches. Daejeon Citizen has a strong away record, with 1.7 goals scored per game. The expected goals suggest a high-scoring match, with Daejeon Citizen having a significant advantage. The home team's defensive struggle...
How Over 1.5 Picks Work
1
Poisson distribution modelling: we compute expected goals (xG) for both teams from recent form, attack/defense strength, and head-to-head data.
2
82% probability minimum: only matches where the model gives 82% or higher chance of 2+ goals make the cut. This filters out uncertain fixtures.
3
5 picks published at 08:00 Lagos, sorted by probability, highest first. Track our record on the stats page.
🔞 18+ only.
Over 1.5 Goals picks are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.
High probability does not guarantee any outcome. Please gamble responsibly.