⚽ Over 1.5 Goals

Today's Over 1.5 Picks

Matches where our Poisson model gives 82% or higher probability of seeing 2 or more goals. Five picks every morning, sorted by confidence.

📊 Poisson Modelled 🔓 Free Forever

👑 Best Pick ✅ AI Analysed

Algeria · Ligue 1 19:00

USM Alger

19:00

Jun 2

CR Belouizdad

Our prediction

⚽ Over 1.5 Goals: YES

Probability

86%

Goals probability breakdown

Over 1.5

86%

Over 2.5

68%

BTTS

61%

AI Analysis

USM Alger has a strong home record with 1.8 goals scored per game. CR Belouizdad has a high BTTS rate of 71%. The head-to-head history favors USM Alger. With USM Alger's recent CAF Cup win, their confidence is high. 💡 Tip: Over 1.5 Goals is the strongest pick due to both teams'...

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 1.5 Goals is rated at 85.8% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

High scoring teams

Recent form leans to CR Belouizdad: 10 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Over 1.5 Goals

Over 1.5 Goals probability

85.8%

Chance of 2+ total goals

USM Alger high-scoring games

33.3%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

CR Belouizdad high-scoring games

66.7%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

USM Alger

L W W L D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

CR Belouizdad

W W L D W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

USM Alger 1wins ·0 draws ·CR Belouizdad 0wins

USM Alger 2-1 CR BelouizdadApr 30, 2026

📊 Poisson model: 86% chance of 2+ goals

How Over 1.5 Picks Work

Poisson distribution modelling: we compute expected goals (xG) for both teams from recent form, attack/defense strength, and head-to-head data.

82% probability minimum: only matches where the model gives 82% or higher chance of 2+ goals make the cut. This filters out uncertain fixtures.

5 picks published at 08:00 Lagos, sorted by probability, highest first. Track our record on the stats page.

🔞 18+ only. Over 1.5 Goals picks are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice. High probability does not guarantee any outcome. Please gamble responsibly.